Atlanta Real Estate BlogRecently posted or modified blog posts by tag - Real Estate Markethttps://www.premieratlantarealestate.com/blog/Copyright PremierAtlantaRealEstate.com2024-03-08T07:47:15-07:00tag:premieratlantarealestate.com,2012-09-20:6287Expect Multiple Offers and Hyper Appreciation This Spring<br /><br />Transcript From Video
Today I'm going to show you why you should expect multiple offers and super high appreciation going into the Spring and the Summer real estate market at least here in Metro Atlanta. What I'm going to show you is a chart that has an activity index and an absorption rate. The activity index is a leading indicator and the absorption rate is a lagging indicator. It uses sold homes in the past to determine what's going to happen in the future, whereas the activity index shows pending homes versus the active listing so it gives you an idea of what's going to happen in the future. When you look at a long-term chart like this one that goes back 5-6 years, you'll see consistently that the activity index predicts what's going to happen about 60 days in advance, and, if I go ahead and I zoom in on the end of this you'll see that the activity index is falling out of the sky very quickly.
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This means that the absorption rate is going to follow and that means that the supply of homes is very quickly going to fall under 3, maybe down to 2 again and it's going to mean hyper-appreciation and it's going to mean multiple offer terms that favor sellers - all the things that we've seen over the past few years. Interest rates have not fallen and don't look like they're going to fall. So, if you're on the sidelines waiting for the interest rates to drop you're going to miss out on so much appreciation that it's going to offset your monthly cost that you would have saved by a lower interest rate and you will have lost all of the cash and equity that you would have gained if you just go ahead and buy the home now. It makes a lot more sense to get in the market now than it does to wait.2024-03-08T07:46:00-07:002024-03-08T07:47:15-07:00Ryan Wardtag:premieratlantarealestate.com,2012-09-20:6203Real Estate Agents Reflect Optimism For 2024<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/678/image/blog/2024/real_estate_market_optimism_in_atlanta_small.jpg" width="400" height="290" class="img_box_left" />During January and February, I conducted a survey that was emailed to over 11,000 licensed real estate professionals in Metro Atlanta to get a sense of what we, as industry professionals and experts forecast for the year ahead. The results indicate an overall positive outlook on what we as a group think 2024 will bring.
While no one can predict with certainty how any segment of an economy or market will ultimately turn out, I find it illuminating to find out from industry professionals how they foresee the future unfolding in their area of expertise. I hope you do as well...
Do You Think 2024 Will Be a Better Time to Buy a House Than 2023?
<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/678/image/blog/2024/Better_Buy.jpg" width="1200" height="679" />
76% of respondents said that buying a home in 2024 will be better than last year while roughly 11% feel it would have been better to buy in 2023.
Do You Think 2024 Will Be a Better Time to Sell a House Than 2023?
<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/678/image/blog/2024/Better-sell.jpg" width="1200" height="600" />
88% of the agents who responded see the 2024 real estate market as a better time to sell than in 2023.
What Do You Think Will Happen to Home Prices in 2024?
<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/678/image/blog/2024/Home_Prices.jpg" width="1200" height="600" />
71% believe that prices will be up while roughly 29% feel prices will either be flat or down some.
What Do You Think Will Happen to Interest Rates in 2024?
<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/678/image/blog/2024/Interest_rates.jpg" width="1200" height="639" />
86% answered the question about what they think will happen to mortgage interest rates by saying they believe these rates will fall this year.
How Many Sales Do You Think You Will Have Compared to 2023?
<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/678/image/blog/2024/transations.jpg" width="1200" height="639" />
This was quite an enthusiastic number and reflects the optimism and sentiment we are seeing and feeling in the market. 94% of real estate agents believe they will sell more homes in 2024 than they did in 2023!
Only One Side of the Story
This is, of course, only one side of the story but it is a story I believe is important to tell and often overlooked in the "predictions" we see in both news stories and social media posts.
Fundamentally I tend to agree with the sentiment we see in this short survey and the early winter leading indicators of the soon-to-come Spring market do show them to be correct. It's early in the year but I give the correction to the agents this time!
2024-02-08T09:50:09-07:002024-02-08T10:30:39-07:00Ryan Wardtag:premieratlantarealestate.com,2012-09-20:5942Will Cooling Weather Slow The Hot Real Estate Market In Atlanta?<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/678/image/blog/2023/atlanta-real-estate-update-11-2023.jpg" width="400" height="400" class="img_box_left" />I spend a lot of time collecting, reviewing, analyzing, and trying to make sense of the real estate market. I have a passion for real estate and I can't imagine trying to advise clients without having command of the topic. Whether I'm playing golf, at a party, hanging out with friends, or find myself chatting in the checkout line at the grocery store, when people find out I'm in real estate, they have one question - "how's the market?" - and I should be able to answer it!
The real, long answer, is that it depends on whether you are a buyer or seller, your motivation, goals, etc., and without knowing all of that, it's impossible to give you a bespoke answer. I can tell you what the market says it's doing, what happened, and what that means going forward with context and we can pick it up from there so let's dive in together!
The Fall/Winter 2023 Atlanta Real Estate Market
First up you will see that the supply of homes (inventory level or absorption rate) is lower in October of 2023 than the same time last year. Higher interest rates have slowed sales but what is often overlooked is that higher interest rates also slowed supply levels since many homeowners are unwilling to give up their extremely low interest rates from the past several years. As a result, we remain in a market with tight (low) inventory. We currently have 3.36 months of supply this year compared to 3.41 months of supply at the same time last year. It is essentially, unchanged and just slightly lower.
Absorption Rate
This first chart takes the available inventory of homes and the average number of sales per month and determines how long it would take to sell all of the available listings at the current rate of sales. The baseline says that if there is less than a 6-month supply, it is a seller's market and if there is greater than a 6-month supply, it is a buyer's market. It is true that the number of months is somewhat price sensitive. For example, higher priced homes can have more months of supply and still be in a seller's market whereas lower priced homes may be slightly less than 6 months to be in a seller's market. We keep charts on differing price points as well and may share those in subsequent updates.
<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/678/image/blog/2023/Year_Over_Year_Supply_Absorption_Rate_-_Metro_Atlanta_Oct_2023.png" width="863" height="532" />
What Does It Mean?
Any discussion of a chart that shows supply, or the absorption rate, should also recognize that it is considered a lagging indicator since we are looking back at what happened rather than forward at what will happen. This is why we show multiple years so we can see patterns and likelihoods. If the pattern doesn't continue as expected, we dive deeper into why that might be to see if we can figure out what change is coming. This chart looks to be following the expected trends.
Average Home Prices
With supply and demand close to what we have seen over the past few years, it follows that prices are still rising. Metro Atlanta real estate market prices are higher month over month and year over year. I would expect them to drop over the next 2-4 months and then rise again through the traditional housing cycle. Remember too that looking at average prices is also a lagging indicator and is historically lower in the coldest months of the year.
<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/678/image/blog/2023/Average_Home_Prices_Year_Over_Year_-_Metro_Atlanta_Oct_2023.png" width="869" height="536" />
What Does it Mean?
With inventory levels low going into the cooler months and prices that still have the upward momentum of summer even as we enter Fall, it looks like this market has finally moved past the trends we saw in COVID times and reverted back to historical cycles.
Get In or Stay Out of the Market?
The best time to plant a tree or buy a house was a long, long time ago. For most people, the next best time is still right now. I hear radio pundits, including some locally, like Clark Howard, say that now is the time to wait but I don't see any statistical or financial data that would support that recommendation. We should never buy, sell, or invest based on how something feels - and I realize it doesn't "feel" like the best time to buy with the higher interest rates we are seeing.
However, if history serves as any sort of predictor of future outcomes, now is certainly a better time than waiting. If rates do go down as the economy and forecasts are predicting, waiting will cost even more because there is growing pent-up demand from people who have been sitting out the last year due to higher rates. Once they get back in the market and with inventory rates that are low, prices and bidding wars are likely to be the outcome again.
Interest rates look like they will fall for several economic reasons unrelated to real estate from what we can tell right now. The jobs market shows signs of cooling, the 10-year Treasury yield has come down and the spread between the 30-year mortgage rate and the 10-year yield is currently much higher than we have seen in the past. This is due in part because banks know many people getting these loans will refinance out of them as soon as they can. Interest is frontloaded so the banks are trying to make sure they don't lose money when homeowners refinance out of them. If the spread were to go back to historical norms, we would already have interest rates in the low 6% range.
Stick With "Why" You Want to Buy or Sell
I can't time the market and neither can you. If you are thinking about buying, selling, or both, you can certainly look at the data and see what it says. You will find that at almost every point in history, it would be better to buy at that time than to wait for something to change that you think would turn the market in your favor.
For now, the real estate market is providing clear signals. Waiting to buy will more than likely cost you more money than buying now for most people.2023-11-21T06:39:01-07:002023-12-04T05:41:37-07:00Ryan Wardtag:premieratlantarealestate.com,2012-09-20:3054How To Show Value To Clients Using Statistics - Absorption Rates<br /><br />Sometimes, the best way to demonstrate value when someone asks the question “how’s the market?” is by using custom statistics. Today I’m going to show you how to find the absorption rate and relate it into meaningful information that shows your professionalism and expertise to win a new client and you can do this literally in less than 10 minutes<br /><br />Not everyone wants to know all the details when you dive into real estate market statistics so first make sure you know your audience. It can demonstrate your professionalism and your expertise for some and it can bore someone else to death.
This is something that is relatively easy to do and once you are proficient, it can be done pretty quickly so let’s get started.
I’ve got a hypothetical potential client that’s on the fence about selling his home and buying a new one. He’s asked me about the market and heard it’s a good time to sell. I’ve already asked what it would take to get him to sell and he’s unsure. Since he hasn’t made a decision about selling or even to use me as his agent, I’m going to position myself as his go-to expert for all things real estate. I’ll use market statistics specific to his situation and relate it to the surrounding market as an opportunity to further our conversations and demonstrate my expertise and value to help secure this person as a client. If I can demonstrate, objectively, that this is a good time to sell and not just because I say so, I build trust and rapport because I get to keep communicating with him and I give him something he currently doesn’t have - market statistics which are repeatable, provable and objective to decide if it’s a good time to sell.
The first thing I need is the location of the house where he lives. Since these stats are custom, you’ll need to decide on some of the parameters for your stats. It can be cities, neighborhoods, school districts, price point, or something else and it will usually be an area + a price point.
When I sit down at the computer to do this, I’ll usually start with the neighborhood if possible and work my way out until there is enough data to be meaningful. If the neighborhood is large, you may have all you need. If not, you may need to look within a mile of the home or something different, like the high school district. Try to keep this part small if possible.
This is the data I need to get started: # of active listings, # of under contract listings, and # of sold listings (I like to use 3 months back if possible but it can be different, and most real estate is seasonal so think about that also) and make sure you are using a bracketed price range around your client’s price.
I’ve gone to my MLS and looked at his neighborhood and his price point and I don’t have enough data to be meaningful so here is what I used for my example:
I extended my search to the high school district and price point and found there are 8 homes for sale, 8 more under contract, and 10 sold in the last 3 months. I’m going to write this down somewhere so I don’t forget. Now I need to find the absorption rate for homes like his. This is also known as the supply of homes or inventory levels. This is the time it’ll take to sell the current active listings. Remember, 6 months or less is basically a buyer’s market, and 6 months or more is a seller’s market for most homes here in Atlanta but it may be different for you and it changes for the luxury market as well. To find the absorption rate, you take the number of available homes divided by the average sales in a month.
We know that in the last 3 months, 10 sold so 10/3 = 3.3 homes sell on average every month.
Stay with me here…
Remember that we found that there are 8 homes available and now we know that 3.3 sell each month. Simply divide those 2 numbers and you’ll have your absorption rate so 8 active listings / 3.3 sales per month = 2.42 months of inventory and now we know it’s a seller’s market for this home and homes near him that are at his price point.
You could stop here but in my experience, you will be making a mistake if you do. When working with small data sets, it’s possible that an outlier can dramatically alter the reality of what’s really going on so we need to repeat these steps on a larger and comparable sample to verify that what we found is in fact correct. By doing so, you increase the likelihood that your stats are correct.
Since we used a high school district for our starting numbers, now let’s use the entire city and compare it to the high school stats.
So, the same thing here again, but more quickly this time. In my example case, the logical next larger size up from the high school district is to use the entire city so that’s where I’ll start. But wait - when I ran the city numbers at the price point, there were only 17 homes available. I’d really like a sample that’s bigger than that since it isn’t really much bigger than my original sample in the school district. Only you can figure this part out because you are the expert in your area. For me, I’m going to draw a map search in my MLS of what I know to be a mostly homogenous housing stock so I can get more data.
So in my bigger “example” area, there are 50 active, 72 pending, and 74 sold homes at his price point in the last 3 months which is 74 homes/3 months=24.67 sales/month. Divide 50 active by 24.67 and we see an absorption rate of 2.02 months. Even lower than in our small sample.
What we’ve done is confirm the small market is probably accurate for what’s really going on anywhere near my potential client’s house and I can inform him that it’s a seller’s market and a great time to capitalize on selling.
Now, if you were paying attention, I had you pull pending listings also and I haven’t talked about those yet.
Remember these 2 statements:
Closed sales are lagging indicators<br />Pending sales are leading indicators
One is based on the past (closed sales) and one on future sales (pending).
In our larger sample area, we had 50 active listings and 72 more under contract. If the number of pending sales is greater than the active listings, it’s likely to continue as a strong seller's market. This is additional information you can use to illustrate “how’s the market?” Answer.
When I go back to him with this information, I’m going to explain that I ran some custom statistics on homes like the one he owns and compared it to the larger market around their home to be sure that we had some very accurate information that’s critical to helping him decide if now is a good time for them to sell his home.
I'll explain what an absorption rate is and let him know that with only about 2 months of inventory, now is as good of a time to sell as we’ve seen historically. It could stay like this for the next several months or it could change. None of us are smart enough to truly predict what will happen in the future but we do know what’s happening now and that’s the best way to make an informed decision.
So that wraps up a quick how-to on generating custom market statistics for clients to demonstrate your expertise and value.
If you can learn how to run these stats for your clients, you’ll be seen by them as a trusted ally and someone who’s a true professional and worth doing business with.
I hope you found this video helpful and if you did, please consider subscribing to my channel so you will get notified of more videos like this one. Thanks for watching!2021-03-01T04:35:00-07:002021-03-01T04:43:17-07:00Ryan Wardtag:premieratlantarealestate.com,2012-09-20:3000The Booming Roswell Real Estate Market in 2021<br /><br />My name is Ryan Ward and I’m the broker and owner of Premier Atlanta Real Estate and on my channel, we talk about local and national real estate news and we dive deeper into local cities, neighborhoods, and things that make our local real state markets tick like restaurants, things to do and other points of interest. If that’s of interest to you, please make sure you subscribe to my channel and you’ll get notified when we post a new video like this one here.
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Let’s dive right in…all real estate markets come down to supply and demand. As a general rule of thumb, we say that a 6 month supply of homes is a “balanced” market. More than 6 months, is a buyer’s market and less than 6 months is a seller’s market. This is true locally for homes in Roswell up to about $750,000 or so and then “a balanced market” goes up a little. So for say a home that is $1,000,000, we might consider a balanced market of 9 months of inventory. This can change even within different areas of the Metro Atlanta market and it’s closely tied to median sales prices for the hyperlocal area.
A quick note on months of inventory. This is sometimes discussed as absorption rate, the months supply of homes, or months of inventory. Let me give a quick example. Let’s say in your market there are 100 homes for sale. In the last 3 months, 30 homes sold so we are currently averaging 10 home sales per month. At the rate of 10 sales per month, it will take 10 months to sell 100 homes. We have 10 months of inventory. The absorption rate is 10 months. There is a 10 month supply of homes. We then compare our 10 month supply of homes to our previous rule of a balanced market being 6 months of inventory and see that in this example, we are in a buyers market. Hopefully, that makes sense!
As a side note here, it’s been a long time since we have seen 10 months of inventory in Roswell. In fact, the last time we even had over 6 months of inventory was February 2015! 6 years ago. Wow. Sorry, I digress. Ok, we can’t know where we’re going until we know where we are right now so let’s dive in and see what’s actually going on in the local Roswell market.
Today, at the beginning of February 2021, there are 79 homes for sale and 140 more homes under contract. That’s an activity index of 1.77 where anything over 1 indicates more homes are selling than are available. It’s a leading indicator that tells us inventory is still shrinking - and by quite a bit! Looking at the last 3 months of sales (and knowing they are some of the slowest months of sales in the whole year), we see that we had 283 sales and are averaging 94 sales per month. With 79 homes for sale and 94 sales per month, we see we have a .84 of one month supply of homes. Less than a month! That’s using previous sales volume and we know that sales heat up over the next few months. This means the true inventory of single-family homes in Roswell right now is probably closer to one-half of one month's supply of homes. This is incredibly low. Crazy low.
It explains why prices are increasing, it explains why we have so many multiple offer scenarios and it is something we as real estate professionals must be able to explain to our clients so we can properly educate them on the current state of the market. This goes for buyers and for sellers alike. What this means is appraisals can’t keep up with sales prices. It means buyers with homes to sell get beat out by buyers with no contingencies. It means more than one person wants to buy every good house on the market.
You know what it doesn’t mean? It doesn’t mean that all homes sell. In fact, in Roswell, in the last 30 days, 20 homes came on the market and then came off without selling. That’s 25% of homes in this crazy market still didn’t sell for one reason or another. Seems impossible, but it’s true! These levels are unhealthy and create a volatile real estate market as prices outpace other economic metrics for extended periods of time.
Two things can happen to change the balance of the market; more inventory can come on the market or fewer home sales can happen or both. If sales volume stayed the same, we would need 564 homes for sale instead of 79 to reach a balanced market. That’s more than 7 times the current inventory levels. Alternatively, we could cut sales from 94 per month to 13. That would also give us a balanced market. However, that’s absurd to think we could only have 13 sales.
It’s these reasons that I give to you here that means in my opinion, there is no way we see a crash in the real estate market. Supply and demand are so far out of balance it would take something extraordinary and completely unpredicted to crash the market. It also means that in no way, shape or form can forbearance that leads to foreclosure destroy the market. The math simply doesn’t exist to allow for it. It means that interest rates would need to run to levels higher than would be possible to slow sales enough to crash the market and the Fed has said they are keeping them low into 2022.
It also means that if rates rise and foreclosures do come into the market, we still won’t be back to a buyers market. We are that far out of balance the other way right now. As a side note, there will be no foreclosure crisis in 2021. The moratorium extensions and the time it takes to foreclose and get them into the market takes longer than there are months left in 2021. When they come, they will be predicted and absorbed before the market can shift that far. It is true that some of the low inventory levels can be directly attributed to COVID. Because this is the case, we can safely say that at some point in 2021, probably by the start of the 3rd quarter, we should see more people willing to list their homes for sale. This will ease some of the pressure but it will be too late in the year to create a slowdown.
The economy is poised to operate fully once the vaccine is distributed, jobs will return, banks will recast and modify loans and set up repayment plans for people in forbearance and we will move on. That’s how it works. What I do think will happen is that we will go back to a more normal real estate market in 2022 when we see 4-6 months of inventory and prices level off for a while. This will be welcome news for many.
This is just my opinion and I no more have a crystal ball to see into the future than anyone else so take it for what it is. If you’re sitting on the sideline as one says you’re going to wait for the crash, by all means, wait. For the rest of you, in my opinion, now is probably the best time to buy and sell real state in your lifetime. Rarely is it both great to buy and sell at the same time. Get out there and seize the opportunity! Once again thanks for watching and if you enjoyed this video, make sure you subscribe to my channel so you’ll get notified of other videos like this one. Until next time, thanks for watching!<br /><br />The Metro Atlanta real estate market has seen prices increase that are consistent with, if not higher than, many major cities around the country. Today I want to take a few minutes and look at the Roswell real estate market which sits on the north side of Atlanta along the Georgia 400 corridor. We’re going to look at where it is now, where it’s likely to go in 2021 and what outside influences may have an impact on the supply and demand which will ultimately determine if this market is here to stay a while longer or if we are on the verge of a crash like many are predicting.2021-02-09T04:38:00-07:002021-03-01T04:47:53-07:00Ryan Wardtag:premieratlantarealestate.com,2012-09-20:2975Housing Market Crash In 2021 - What The Media Missed!<br /><br />Click Below To Subscribe To My Channel:
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Transcript of video:
My name is Ryan Ward, I’m the broker and owner of Premier Atlanta Real Estate and I’m going to try and add the proper context around these housing market stories so you can have the correct perspective and be better able to draw more accurate conclusions about what may or may not happen in the real estate market so you can feel comfortable and confident buying, selling or investing in real estate.
News and conventional media are still important sources of current information. Just be aware that context matters and news media, no matter how hard they try, are not really experts at anything including the real estate market. Their job is to report what they believe to be important stories - which is fine. However, if you see or hear something on the news of interest or concern, I recommend further investigation into what all of it means before drawing conclusions. There are plenty of people, including myself with an opinion of what the future holds, and the truth is, none of us really know for sure what it will look like but reading the tea leaves and gathering all of the pertinent information correctly can at least give us a more educated prediction than a journalist reporting a story.
The most frequently cited reasons concerning a pending crash basically revolve around a few basic ideas:
Home prices are rising too fast and they are becoming unaffordable
Unemployment is/was through the roof and too many people are in forbearance and that will lead to a wave of foreclosures that will flood the market causing prices to plummet
Rising interest rates could kill the market
Recent citations of increasing mortgage rates and news stories of month to month sales slowdowns
In a previous video on the Atlanta real estate market, I looked at a Freddie Mac study about forbearance that provides a great deal of evidence that we will ultimately have far fewer foreclosures than some will lead you to believe. When you look at all of the available information on forbearance it’s pretty clear it won’t happen the way worst case scenarios play out unless something unforeseen takes place to alter our economy in ways we can’t yet imagine. We’re literally months away from the country and the economy reopening fully and even places with the most severe shutdowns are now coming out with statements about the need to reopen as soon as possible. The latest Mortgage Bankers Association report shows a reduction in the total number of homeowners in forbearance and I think it’s reasonable to expect that number to shrink as the vaccine gets implemented and more of the economy opens and more jobs return. I’ll post a link to the section in my last video and to Freddie Mac’s article if you would like to learn more about it. Just know there will be no foreclosure wave in 2021 especially with the extension of the foreclosure moratorium through the end of March.
In my intro, I noted that many are throwing around the words bubble and crash. For some, it’s just a headline grabber to get views and ratings and for others, I think there’s a sincere belief we are currently in a bubble. I’ve been selling real estate since 2004 and have had a team of agents since 2006 and we experienced the real bubble, first hand. Back in the last housing crash, under qualified owners became speculators because basically, if you could fog a mirror, there was a lender ready to give you money and the rush was on and demand soared. What happened then was that underqualified owner-speculators and over-easy credit guidelines set the ball rolling for the bubble in 2006-2007. There were of course more intricate and nuanced reasons related to the mortgage and finance industries but the easy credit led to a speculative frenzy.
It’s very different now. There’s no speculative frenzy and there aren’t any over-easy credit opportunities occurring like last time and, speculation really is one of the requirements and main ingredients for a bubble. However, prices really are rising and doing so fast so it’s very easy to see how it feels like a bubble. It’s at this point you start to look for statistics that confirm your belief, confirmation bias sets in, and some objectivity is lost.
For example, the chart you see here shows housing prices calculated with inflation. This is a scary chart and if you look, you do see what appears to be a bubble. I really think it lacks some context because it’s missing how important interest rates are when we think about the housing market. John Wake of Real Estate Decoded has a great article on this and I’ll post a link to his analysis for you. He created a chart that shows something very different than the first scary chart I put up after you adjust for rising prices, inflation, and interest rates. Surprisingly, he found that if you have a mortgage today, your payment is lower today than it was in 1990. Hard to believe this could be the case and makes it that much harder to believe we are in a bubble as well.
The next thing you may have heard is that sales are down for 3 consecutive months. You know what? They are supposed to be. It’s not a news story!
Here’s an important tip:
Anytime I hear sales data in a format that compares one month of sales to the previous month, I get a little suspicious and you should too. A better measure is to look at current sales in a month vs the same month one year earlier because it accounts for the real estate sales cycle. Market predictions can’t be made in a meaningful way comparing a month to the next month alone. Instead, We would compare June with the previous June. Or the last 3 months with one year to one year and three months back. This gives us better data to assess what’s actually happening.
Nobody should be surprised that November sales are lower than October sales or that January is slower than December. This seems to me to be hijacked data to sell you ideas based on what might be a faulty premise. I would again suggest you check with a local real estate expert to see what’s really going on. Let me give you an example:
The Atlanta housing market sales cycle looks like what you see here in this graph. Slow at the beginning of the year and picks up in March through June-July and slows down through November and picks up in December and slows in January. It’s consistent. It does this every year. Imagine if I tried to tell you the market was going to crash because sales were down from July to August to September. It’s missing the needed context that it does this every year and it is expected and it doesn’t mean there is a problem or even a change in what is expected in the market! With that in mind, here’s some actual real estate data that shows there’s no trend of negative sales on statistics that actually matter here in the Atlanta real estate market:
There were 7,201 sold homes in December 2020. There were 6,548 sold homes in December of 2019. That’s actually a 10% increase in sales year over year and definitely not a slowdown. Sales are a lagging indicator and so to look ahead we can use the leading indicator of pending sales. December 2020 is the last full month of data and we see that in December of 2020 there were 5,650 pending sales and in 2019 there were 4,638. That’s a 21.8% increase in pending sales compared to what happened the previous year so it doesn’t look like we are heading for that slowdown we heard about from leading indicators either.
Different regions run in different cycles. Warmer climates may have more sales in the winter months compared to colder climates. I don’t know how it happens in your local market and this is exactly why I recommend you get your information from a local real estate expert.
Interest rates will have to rise at some point as the economy opens up and we begin to see real economic growth. It’s going to happen at some point for sure. Freddie Mac suggests it won’t happen too soon though saying: “This low mortgage interest rate environment is projected to continue through 2021 and 2022 as the Federal Reserve has voted to keep the interest rates anchored near zero for a longer period of time if needed until the economy rebounds. With mortgage interest rates averaging around 2.8% in the fourth quarter of 2020, it is forecasted to average around 2.9% through the end of 2021.”
It’s true that eventually, more inventory will come into the market as well and that will help bring a little better balance to the market but it’s going to take a lot of inventory for that to happen. The truth is we are already in a real estate crisis. It’s an inventory crisis and it’s too low. It’s so low that inventory could triple and we would still be in a seller's market here in Atlanta and as long as rates don’t double at the same time it’s difficult to imagine a scenario that would see prices decline let alone crash. With more people receiving the vaccine, confidence should return for sellers to let buyers back in their homes and that should help bring additional inventory to the market which, I believe, , will be healthy. Just ask any buyer fighting for a home right now.
Maybe the advice regarding what we hear on the news is this: when we seek real estate information, the news media can’t be your only source. Especially in the world we live in today where headlines often don't even match the stories and those headlines are often created just for clickbait and to sell ads. As is usually the case, your best source of information is likely going to be from an expert in the real estate market, locally. Even when a news story interviews an expert on a news show, they’ve usually sought out an “expert” that already fits the narrative for their “news” story.
With that in mind, as we move into the new year with the election behind us, the vaccine being distributed, and the economy poised to rebound, it’s my opinion that there will be no housing crash in 2021 and probably not at all even farther out into the future.
If you enjoyed this video, please make sure you give it a like and <a href="https://www.premieratlantarealestate.com/Premieratlantarealestate?sub_confirmation=1">subscribe to my channel</a> so you can be notified when I upload a new video. Until next time, thanks for watching!<br /><br />The national news media continues to push the narrative of a housing crash looming just beyond the horizon and they feed the flames of fear by pushing information that appears to indicate that the real estate market has peaked and is about to decline rapidly. They use trigger words like “bubble” and “crash” and headlines like “pending home sales fall for 3 straight months” that seem to indicate it’s already starting to happen. If you like to stay informed about real estate, whether it’s the Atlanta real estate market or somewhere else, you can’t help but find these stories.2021-01-22T08:47:00-07:002021-03-01T04:49:30-07:00Ryan Wardtag:premieratlantarealestate.com,2012-09-20:29537 Strategies To Win With Multiple Offers<br /><br />The best homes for sale in the Atlanta real estate market and around the country frequently have multiple offers. This added competition makes it difficult to get your offer accepted by a seller. In this video, I will share with you the 7 very specific strategies we discuss with our clients to give them an advantage and win the house.2021-01-12T08:49:00-07:002021-02-04T08:39:51-07:00Ryan Wardtag:premieratlantarealestate.com,2012-09-20:2932Boom or Bust for Atlanta Real Estate in 2021?<br /><br />Video link referenced in this video on the national real estate market is right here: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jhe4a7aQPzE">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jhe4a7aQPzE</a>
Full Transcript From Video:
Hey everyone, it’s Ryan Ward with Premier Atlanta Real Estate and today I’m going to answer the question of whether now is a good time to buy real estate, sell real estate, or both, here in Atlanta. It’s certainly unusual circumstances in the market and that’s led to some people making predictions based on anecdote and fear and these are never good methods to make a decision. Watch through and find out for yourself what I think is the right move in the Atlanta real estate market now.
Georgia was the first state to reopen after the shutdown in April 2020 and the real estate market in Metro Atlanta reaped huge benefits as a result. In my last video, I shared my thoughts on why I don’t think it’s possible to see a national housing crash in 2021, and today we are going to look closely at Metro Atlanta. If you haven’t seen that video, you can check it out here. Nationally demand for homes rose about 1% in 2020 while, in Atlanta, demand was up 5% over 2019. That’s a lot more than the national average! So, is this a housing bubble in the Atlanta real estate market? Can we absorb increased inventory - if and when foreclosures and forbearance problems hit the market? Will that even happen in 2021? And, the biggest question of course - is now a good time to buy or sell a home?
We were fortunate to have a phenomenal real estate market in Atlanta during 2020 that otherwise saw some economic sectors get completely demolished. It’s been difficult to watch the retail, restaurant, and music industries hurt so bad and hopefully, the vaccine will help revitalize these important parts of our economy and our culture. It’s critical that it happens. Let’s jump right in and answer the question of whether now is the right time to list or buy a home in Atlanta or if we need to worry that foreclosures will hurt or even crash the Atlanta real estate market. The most common concern I’ve heard and read is that the millions of people who elected forbearance won’t be able to get caught up on their payments and it’s going to cause a massive wave of foreclosures. I certainly understand the concern especially since there are so many more homeowners in forbearance than during more normal times. Since this seems to be the biggest cause for concern, let’s try to understand it better. Freddie Mac did the best study I can find on forbearance during COVID and found from historical forbearances, that the higher your monthly payments, the higher your loan to value, or the lower your credit score, the more likely you were to default. It just so happens that right now, forbearances due to COVID match closely to a recent time of increased forbearance during the storm season of 2017 but the number of forbearances is lower than in 2017 as the loan to values increase suggesting there may be fewer foreclosures as a percentage of loans currently in forbearance than at that time. While the study can’t predict the future, it does provides a great deal of insight as to who is in forbearance and what is likely to happen based on real world past examples.
In my opinion, the most telling statistic is that, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, 32% of homeowners who are in forbearance right now are actually still on time with their payments. Right off the bat, 32% of borrowers in forbearance are almost off the table as potential foreclosures. That’s almost shocking and great news at the same time! Also, there is a Federal foreclosure moratorium for Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae loans through January 2021 and the moratorium runs through February for FHA loans. There is a possibility that one or both will be extended even further depending on how the market is holding up. So let’s review, how the foreclosure process works in Georgia because a “wave of them” isn’t going to happen in 2021 no matter what anyone tries to tell you.
So, Georgia is a non-judicial foreclosure state which means lenders don’t need to go to court first to begin the process of foreclosure. This means in Georgia, foreclosures happen faster than in some other states so if foreclosures are coming, we will see them here before many other places around the country. A foreclosure starts with a default on payments of a minimum of 2 months typically before a lender will start with a notice of intent to foreclose. Law requires notice to be given at least 30 days before the foreclosure sale. There are lots of other steps involved but we are just looking at time since that’s the biggest concern. This means we are at least 2-3 months out before the foreclosure sale can even happen at the courthouse. At that point, the home will either get auctioned and purchased at the courthouse or go back to the bank. As a side note here, it never hits the “market” if it gets purchased at the courthouse. Now, if the home doesn’t sell at auction, it goes back to the bank and to an asset management department. Then it gets evaluated, priced, inspected and sits around in a file on a desk of an asset manager who has way too much work to process these things quickly. You’re looking at 6 months at least before they hit the market after the 3 months at the beginning in a fastest case scenario in a time of more normal amounts of foreclosures. It’s more likely going to take a year or more if banks start needing to foreclose in large numbers.
This timeline means that there is no real way for foreclosures to affect the market in 2021 since they won’t even enter until the very end of the year at the earliest. By then, everyone will have the vaccine, all business will be reopened and as Americans, we will be getting back to life as we knew it before COVID which means the economy will be operating on all cylinders for the first time in a while. Remember, we’re also in a market with supply that is so low that it’s the low supply that’s the actual housing crisis. Another thing to consider...before the government and lenders let these homes go to foreclosure, there will be a full effort made to set up repayment plans and allow for loan modifications before we start getting into massive numbers of defaults which will take even more of these homes out of potential foreclosure status. Please understand that banks don’t want to foreclose on homes. It isn’t their business model. As we’ve already seen, 32% of homeowners aren’t even late, other people will figure out how to get caught up, others will sell at market prices or otherwise solve this problem because most homeowners have enough equity to sell, unlike in the real housing crash in 2007. This doesn’t leave enough foreclosures to crash the real estate market in Atlanta.
Here’s why. Everything about the real estate market starts and ends with supply and demand. We saw that demand in Atlanta outpaced the national average with 5% year over year increase in the number of sales. A significant reason is that Atlanta has been one of the top 5 fastest growing cities in the country for the last 5 years for net migration according to the Atlanta Chamber of Commerce. If everything else stays the same, we actually need to sell even more homes just to keep up with growth. Another reason demand will stay high in 2021 is that we know interest rates are going to remain low. The Fed has already told us this and they’ve even indicated that they are likely to stay low beyond 2021. These two reasons alone should ensure that demand stays high and there is nothing on the horizon to change it. Now to supply - if there is a housing crisis, it’s this -supply is too low. In my opinion it’s at an unhealthy low and it would actually be a relief to the market if we could see more supply. As an example, an agent on my team representing a buyer just made an offer on a home, in January of 2021, in the Cumming area on the north side of Atlanta and that home had over 80 showings and 25 offers in 3 days. Consider for a moment how low supply is if there were 25 people who wanted that house and couldn’t get it. This is a story that plays out all across Atlanta and at all price points. Last year we had multiple offers on 2 properties over a million dollars, every home we listed after the shutdown that sold in 2020 had more than one offer and this chart shows you exactly what I mean when I say inventory is too low. It would be impossible for inventory to rise to levels that would cause prices to fall when we see what demand is likely to be and how low the supply is currently.
Look, if demand was cut in half and supply tripled, we still wouldn’t be in a buyers market in Atlanta. We have about a one month supply at the time of this recording. So, should you buy a home right now? If you want to buy before prices get higher, if you want to buy while interest rates are low and your buying leverage is high and you can find a home you like, yes, in my opinion, you should buy right now. At the end of the day, none of us know exactly what the future will bring and we do know what is happening, right now. In the current environment, now is as good a time to buy as there has ever been. So, should you sell? Well, if what I am saying here holds to be true, waiting may cause your home to be worth more in the future so maybe you should wait and hold out for a higher sales price, except...the house you will be purchasing later is also going to cost you more! Why wait on any sort of uncertain future outcomes when you know what an amazing time it is right now to sell your home due to low inventory levels and how incentivized buyers are due to low interest rates? I understand, it’s rare to be able to answer the question of “how’s the market” with an answer of “great” that applies to both buyers and sellers simultaneously, but if you are in the Metro Atlanta market including the suburbs, now is the time to buy and sell. At some point in the future, one side will not have the leverage it has right now. Some of you will wait while others will capitalize. Which side of the decision will you be on? Finally, if you have enjoyed this video, please make sure to subscribe and hit the bell icon to get notified when I upload new videos to my channel. Thanks for watching and I’ll see you soon!2021-01-05T11:25:00-07:002021-03-01T04:44:05-07:00Ryan Wardtag:premieratlantarealestate.com,2012-09-20:2911The Housing Market Crash Of 2021 - Can It Happen In Atlanta?<br /><br /><a href="https://www.youtube.com/c/Premieratlantarealestate?sub_confirmation=1"><img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/678/image/subscribe.png" width="288" height="84" /></a>
Full Transcript:
Home prices were through the roof in 2020 despite everything else the year gave us. Since the beginning of the COVID crisis, our team has had a ton of buyers put off buying a home and the concerns they had were more or less, the same - we want to wait to see what happens, we think prices are going to come down, there’s going to be a wave of foreclosure deals if we wait a little longer, why buy now at the top of the market, this feels like a bubble and I want to wait until it pops, I can’t find anything I like at my price - and various other concerns like these. Now, these are legitimate concerns and I understand why people have them. You’ll find plenty of headlines that play into this idea of a bubble or a market crash as well. Admittedly, it can be difficult to see prices rising and rising and rising with no end in sight. It can be disheartening. It’s also true that there will be something of a foreclosure crisis at some point in the future but there isn’t any evidence that there will be enough foreclosures to swing the market in the other direction. Interest rates are also artificially low and could go back up as well and this would weaken buying power which would put downward pressure on prices. This idea of a crash or price drop seems to me to be part fear and part cherry picking of relevant data points though. Nevertheless buying a home is one of the biggest decisions that most of us make in our lifetimes so it’s an important conversation but what if I told you that it is very unlikely we see a price drop in 2020?
I mean, we all know there are ups and downs in the real estate market and it would be great if we could predict the bottom, buy at the low point and sell when the market crests thereby maximizing our profits and minimizing our risks. It’s a great plan and I can see why many people adopt this as one of the main decision points when buying and selling real estate.
I want to weigh in here with my opinion of what I think is going to happen in 2021. It’s an important topic as we end 2020 because it’s likely you will hear louder and louder warning sirens that the market is going to shift and prices are going to drop. Then, you may end up being like the people I described earlier and remain sitting on the sidelines looking back a year from now and only then realizing you should have bought a house 2 years ago at the beginning of the crisis. You will have lost 2 years of significant appreciation and equity building along with the additional tax benefits that come with home ownership and paying down of the principal balance banking yourself even more equity and security.
There’s a lot to look at here so let’s start with where the market is right now and how the market has changed over time. This chart shows the median price of a home in the United States since 1980. As you can see, there is really only one significant period of price decline in the last 40 years and that took place from the summer of 2007 through the 1st quarter of 2009. So really, the worst case in the last 40 years saw prices that declined for 2 years. It did take about 6 years for the prices to get back to pre-housing crisis levels but this is only for a very small group of people who bought that summer...so there are a couple of important points here. 1. We have to recognize that prices have fallen in the past and that makes it easier for people to think it can happen again. 2. In my opinion it is a near impossibility that the 2021 financial situation could even remotely resemble anything like what was happening back in 2006-2008. This is not a world financial crisis like what happened then - which actually began in the housing sector with over-extending credit. Instead, what is happening today is caused by COVID - a non-financial, temporary outside influence that will begin dissipating because of the vaccine as we move into 2021. Here in Atlanta, we can see the same pricing trends, generally, that we see across the country. The only difference here is there is even less fluctuation, a bit more stable in what we have seen. These aren’t the kind of charts that indicate prices are about to drop. We certainly need more information to draw a responsible conclusion and we’ll use this as one of our data points.
Next I think we need to really address just some basic fundamentals, supply and demand.
Supply has been dropping consistently since 2010 and continued to drop throughout 2020. We know that when COVID became our reality, supply was still dropping. It shrank further and immediately once many sellers decided to keep their homes off the market. It’s certainly understandable that sellers were worried by having people in and out of their home during a pandemic. As we end 2020 and 2021 begins, we have COVID case numbers higher than at any other point. We are still months away from full distribution of that vaccine at the earliest so this means supply will remain low. Here in Atlanta, we have the lowest supply on record and basically shrunk every month since the shutdown. We currently have about a one month supply of homes at the Metro Atlanta at almost all price points.
The flip side is demand. Admittedly, back in March of 2020, I don’t know of many people who believed demand for housing would be anywhere near as high as it turned out to be. In fact, most reasonable people felt as though it would be lower. In reality, demand for housing in 2020 outpaced the demand for housing in 2019. It’s hard to imagine that demand could be higher in 2021 than in 2020 but there are certain indications that will make it possible! The Fed pledges to keep interest rates near zero and many members say it may stay that way as far out as 2023. Low interest will help to keep demand high.
So the fundamentals will make it very hard to see any path that leads to prices dropping when we look at supply and demand. Here’s a real world example of what I mean. You can see here that as of the time of recording today, we have about 7800 active listings and also a one month supply. To reach a balanced market (neither a buyer or seller market), we need about 6 months of inventory. Put another way, if 2021 sales approximate 2020 sales volume, we will need 6 times the number of listings to have a balanced market. Instead of the 7800 listings available, it would need to grow 6 fold to well over 46,000 listings!
Now, there are some things that will happen beginning in the second half of 2021 that may begin to play into the market cooling some but not changing the balance. We’ve seen some states lift the foreclosure moratoriums and that means sometime late 2021 or maybe into 2022, we may see some of those properties make it into the market. This will increase the supply a little, but not too much. Another group of people - those that chose forbearance and are unable to get caught up, may find themselves in a situation where they need to sell their homes as a last resort to save their credit so they may also sell - however, don’t expect them to be short sales or even distressed properties, really. I don’t expect anywhere near enough of them to happen to shift us to a buyer’s market. Even if they hit the market, they will sell quickly and most if not all of these homeowners have equity - and this is an important point going back to something I said earlier and that this is very different than what happened during the financial crisis.
So if you are holding out, waiting for prices to drop and eventually decide to buy, there is a good chance the market will have pushed prices higher. What that means is that the money you spend in the future will buy less of a house than you can buy today or you will spend more money to buy the same house.
You know, there really is one more important takeaway that I have to include as relevant information here and that is that we, as a society, are resilient. We find ways to adapt to changes. We always have and we always will. It’s a reason to be optimistic about outcomes. History proves this out over and over and we literally witnessed it happen in 2020. Demand outpaced virtually all early projections of what might happen. In fact, as we end 2020, it appears there will be about 1% more sales in 2020 than there were in 2019. Lower supply and more demand for housing is an equation that simply can’t lead to lower prices.
So if you are considering buying a home and you’re on the fence, I am definitely of the opinion that waiting will cost you more money than buying now and that prices are much more likely to rise than to fall. It is my opinion that there will be no housing market crash in 2021. Interest rates are also hovering at an all time low and they fluctuate up or down a little daily so you can’t know when they will be the lowest until the time has passed.2020-12-31T11:21:00-07:002021-03-01T04:44:18-07:00Ryan Wardtag:premieratlantarealestate.com,2012-09-20:1890Roswell Real Estate Market Updates
Roswell Market Report May 2019
<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/678/image/blog/2019/May-_Roswell-statistics-2019.jpg" width="1024" height="3072" />
What Do These Statistics Mean For Roswell?
Still A Seller's Market
While we do see signs of change possible on the horizon in the overall real estate market in Metro Atlanta, it remains a seller's market for the majority of price points in Roswell and all of them under one million dollars. The Active/Pending ratio, which is a leading indicator, is lower for the second straight month at 47.1% compared to 54% that we saw last month. June is historically the busiest month of the year for real estate sales in Roswell and all of Atlanta. We would really like to see this number above 50%.
Demand For Homes In Roswell Is Strong
There were more sales this year in May at 168 than last year at 157 and this broke what looked like the beginning a slowing trend from the previous 2 months.
<br /><br />Roswell Market Report April 2019
<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/678/image/blog/2019/Roswell-real-estate-statistics-april-2019.jpg" width="1024" height="3072" />
What Do These Statistics Mean For Roswell?
Still A Seller's Market
First of all, it remains a seller's market. Inventory is rising slowly but sales were very strong in April - this is the first month in the last 6 where there has been a statistically relevant increase in year over year sales. The Active/Pending ratio, which is a leading indicator, is lower at 54% compared to 63% that we saw last month. This could mean May sales are ultimately lower than last year.
Average And Median Prices Down And Why
Perhaps the most noteworthy bit of news is that the average sales price in Roswell is down 10.9% to 438,933 from April of 2018 which was $492,829. It's important to note here that the median price is also down 9.5%.
The biggest factor? In 2018 there were 6 sales ranging from $900,000 to $1,700,000. In 2019 there were no sales above $900,000.
Remember, there were actually more sales this year in April than last year in Roswell so we must be mindful that one month does not make a trend. One month does make you pause and take special note of the numbers from next month to see if a trend is coming and we will keep an eye on the market!
<br /><br />Looking To Buy A Home In Roswell?
Jump over to the <a href="https://www.premieratlantarealestate.com/roswell/">Roswell real estate</a> page and let us know how we can help!
Ready To Sell Your Home? Call Us At 770-604-1860
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Roswell Market Report March 2019
<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/678/image/blog/2019/Roswell-statistics-3-19.jpg" width="1024" height="3072" />
Roswell Real Estate Market Update: March 2019
Main Takeaways:
The pendulum continues to slowly swing away from an overheated seller's market towards balance. It is still a seller's market even as the trends show moderate slowdowns compared to last year.
Key Points:
March of 2019 was similar to March of 2018 in many ways.
Demand is flat with 92 sales in March of 2019 and 93 sales in 2018
Median days to sell is up 100% from 16 days to 32 days meaning half of the homes in Roswell sold in 32 days or less while half took longer than 32 days
Inventory was slightly higher at 4.1 months yet still a seller's market
Overall Metro Atlanta Market Effect
The majority of indicators still show slowing through the month of April compared to last year. This is a trend that actually started in July of 2018. Price is a lagging indicator and we are still seeing them rise, just at slower rates. Inventory continues to go up monthly and demand is consistently slightly lower than the year over year monthly comparison. This chart from the Keller Williams Chartmasters presentation of the overall Metro Atlanta market shows a slowdown that simply can't be ignored:
<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/678/image/blog/2019/atl-market-stats.png" width="806" height="499" />
Is It A Shift Or A Correction?
Right now, it's a correction. When the bottom fell out during the last downturn, the circumstances were very different. Currently, this is still an excellent time to sell your home. Prices are still rising, the economy is strong and there is no lending crisis.
<br /><br />Spring Market of 2016
<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/678/image/rising_interest_rates_400.jpg" alt="" width="400" height="266" class="img_box_left" />In our last market update when we looked at the <a href="https://www.premieratlantarealestate.com/blog/alpharetta-real-estate-update-spring-2016/">Alpharetta real estate market</a>, it appeared that we were starting to see signs that a pricing correction may be on the horizon. With the overall economy stable, and in an election year, there really shouldn't be too many outside factors that will influence the real estate market. Except for one major influence - the Federal Reserve. There is a strong possibility that the Fed will raise rates.
Rising Interest Rates Make Homes Less Affordable
In recent weeks, the Fed has been hinting at the idea of raising interest rates and if they do, it will have an impact on the market. If interest rates rise, your buying power decreases because it makes it more expensive to buy a home. When this happens there will be a smaller pool of buyers for homes thus lowering demand and in turn lowering housing prices.
So Should You Wait to Buy?
It all seems so easy - we predict prices to go down so we automatically think the right thing to do is to wait until they do before we buy a home. It's a natural conclusion to draw. However, it really is more complicated than that. First, there is no guarantee that prices will drop and if they do, there will still be certain areas that see very modest, if any price drops. In the higher demand areas, we may only see a leveling off of prices or perhaps an overall drop that only amounts to a few percentage points. That generally isn't enough to draw the conclusion that the right decision is to wait.
How Will it Affect Homes in Roswell?
Roswell is a great example of an area that will have a very small impact in the event that prices to decline as a result of diminished pent up demand and higher interest rates. This is due in large part to the demographics of the area, the schools, the lifestyle and the location. All of these factor into the equation because demand will always be higher in areas like this than the overall real estate market. The best thing we can do is look to see what's happening in the market now, compare it to what it was in the previous year and extrapolate what impact a minor slowdown would have on the area. We can also look back and see how an area like Roswell was impacted during the most recent severe slowdown that began here in 2007. Areas on the north side of Atlanta were not as severely impacted as other areas. We should expect that will be the case again as well.
The Roswell Market - Right Now and Last Year
There are currently 356 homes for sale in Roswell
There are 332 homes under contract above the 356 listed for sale
In the last 90 days 442 homes sold - last year there were 533 or a 17% drop
In the last 6 months 768 homes sold - last year there were 850 or a 9.6% drop
Sales per month are averaging 128
The absorption rate, or months supply of homes, is 2.78 months. Technically it's a little higher because not all of the homes under contract will actually sell
You can see from these numbers that the biggest slowdown from last year has taken place in the last 3 months because the percentage drop is much higher in the last three months than for the last 6 months. While this seems disconcerting to some degree, it is offset by the extremely low inventory. The overall Roswell real estate market is a strong sellers market. This brings us back to what will happen in a slowdown. Well, if the slowdown does occur, and it is likely to happen, it would bring us more in line with a balanced market and not throw us into a strong buyers market. Under this scenario, we would see prices level off more so than for them to drop.
Roswell Market
So with all of that said, I would still be of the opinion that if you are thinking about buying or selling, I don't see any reason to wait. There isn't anything on the horizon that looks like it will have a major impact on pricing - at least in the Roswell area. You can search all <a href="https://www.premieratlantarealestate.com/roswell/">Roswell real estate</a> for sale on our website and if you see something you would like more information on, just ask and we will be happy to help.
<br /><br />If you are looking for current and past information on the Roswell real estate market, you can find it here. Check back frequently to learn the latest. This post contains both current and past information about the Roswell real estate market. If you would like or need specific or additional information and context for news and other media, <a title="Roswell real estate agent" href="https://www.premieratlantarealestate.com/#roswellrealestatecontact">fill out the contact form below</a> or call us directly and ask to speak with Ryan Ward at 770-604-1860.2019-06-20T04:28:00-07:002020-07-28T05:44:26-07:00Ryan Wardtag:premieratlantarealestate.com,2012-09-20:1660Martin's Landing Market Minute, 2018 Recap<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/678/image/blog/2019/martins-landing-market-jan-2019.jpg" width="1200" height="600" />
December will close out a strong month and a very good year for real estate in Martins Landing. As of December 17th, 61 homes sold and 5 more are slated to close before year-end. It will be just a few short of the number of homes sold in 2017, which is consistent with what we are seeing across Roswell and all of Metro Atlanta,
The average price of homes sold in 2018 is $337,197 with average days on market of 35 and homes selling at just over 97% of the original asking price. In 2017 there were 72 closings with an average price of $332,985 when the average days on market was 32 and right at 97% of the original price.
<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/678/image/blog/2019/search-martins-landing.jpg" width="1200" height="200" />
<a href="https://www.premieratlantarealestate.com/property/8900-martin-rd-roswell-ga-30076/pid-11652985/?tlid=fa21cd2be9d74130be9d4090d7e21d51&regtype=out" target="blank"><img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/678/image/blog/8900_martin_rd.jpg" width="300" height="200" class="img_box_right" /></a>Most Expensive Sale of the Year
The most expensive home to sell this year was <a href="https://www.premieratlantarealestate.com/property/8900-martin-rd-roswell-ga-30076/pid-11652985/?tlid=fa21cd2be9d74130be9d4090d7e21d51&regtype=out" target="blank">8900 Martin Rd that sold for $500,000</a> and it only took 3 days to go under contract in April. The agent representing the buyer and the seller were out of 2 different Keller Williams offices. The list price was $499,000 and it sold for $500,000 with the seller contributing $10,000 toward the buyer's closing costs.
Current Martin's Landing Inventory
***Multiple Offers Received***<br />Below is our featured Martin's Landing home for sale and all other homes for sale in Martins Landing. Jump over to the<a href="https://www.premieratlantarealestate.com/martins-landing/"> Martin's Landing page</a> to learn more about the neighborhood.<br /><br />Martin's Landing Real Estate Agent
<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/678/image/pare-stats.jpg" width="110" height="134" class="img_box_left" />If you are ready to sell your home in Martin's Landing, contact us. The first step typically starts with getting an idea of what your home will sell for in today's market followed by finding out what marketing techniques will get your home sold for the most amount of money in the least amount of time. We can help with all the way around! Just fill out the form below or give us a call for a no obligation consultation.2018-12-16T15:34:00-07:002020-07-28T05:45:03-07:00Ryan Wardtag:premieratlantarealestate.com,2012-09-20:1334Do Your Homework!It’s hard to believe, but the beginning of a new school year is just around the corner! Although I am sure your kids are still enjoying their summer vacation, it will be no time before they have picked out the perfect backpack and stuffed it with all the essential school supplies.
<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/678/image/education-school-apple_800.jpg" width="800" height="450" />
One of the top search criteria I hear from buyers is schools. Schools can be a primary reason for moving and a major deciding factor for the home you choose to buy. First and foremost, parents want the best schools for their kids - that is a given. But beyond that, the school district where a home resides can determine the market value of a home and it’s potential to gain value in the future. And, the sought after schools can also help you down the road when it comes time to sell your home - making it more desirable to potential buyers.
Looking for a home in a particular school district? On the Premier Atlanta Real Estate site, we have an awesome tool to help you search for available homes located near the most popular schools in the area. Check out this link:
<a title="Homes For Sale By School District" href="https://www.premieratlantarealestate.com/homes-for-sale-by-school-district-in-atlanta.php" target="_blank">https://www.premieratlantarealestate.com/homes-for-sale-by-school-district-in-atlanta.php</a>
Want to do some more homework? Request a copy of the Atlanta Business Chronicle annual school guide. When doing research on schools, I recommend reviewing test scores and visiting schools in person to speak with staff who can then provide you with more information about each school. A good place to start is with the annual Atlanta Business Chronicle School Guide. Send me an email at <a href="mailto:marci@premieratlantarealestate.com" target="_blank">marci@premieratlantarealestate.com</a> to request a copy and I will mail you one directly.
Are you are ready to start looking for a home and schools are important to you - I can help! Give me a call and let’s talk about how I can help find you find a great home in the desired school district and make the process hassle-free!2017-07-13T11:14:00-07:002017-08-11T07:35:53-07:00Marci Chambers Smithtag:premieratlantarealestate.com,2012-09-20:1328What's The Real Story? It's Probably Pricing!Time and again, I come across a home listing that is well kept, with awesome features, in a great neighborhood... but it just isn't selling.
Buyers will ask, "why has is been on the market so long?" Sellers will ask, "why isn't my house selling?"
And the answer is usually: PRICE.
My job, as your highly skilled real estate professional, is to do the research and give you the tools and information to price your home properly, or to make the appropriate offer on a property. To get that information, I look at factors such as style, size, features, geographic location, schools, etc. in comparison to comparable recently sold (in the last 3 - 6 months) properties. I don't set the price - you don't set the price - THE MARKET SETS THE PRICE.
The goal is to sell the property in the least amount of time for the most money. And your pricing strategy will have a direct effect on your success of selling for the most money in the least amount of time. Statistics show that if you price your property too high, you risk sitting on the market for months. And in the end, you will probably be selling for less than if you priced properly from the beginning, because you will need to do price reductions to offset the perception that there is something wrong with the property. Price your property too low, and you aren't maximizing the potential profit from the sale - and the bidding war you hoped to achieve may never materialize.
Take a look at the snapshot below which demonstrates the effect price has on sales vs. listing price and days on market. Getting the price right from the beginning, is your best bet for selling your home for the most amount of money in the least amount of time.
<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/678/image/pricing_info_graphic_2000_02.png" alt="" width="800" height="2000" class="img_box_center" />
Are you ready to have a chat about selling your home? I would love to meet with you to discuss how Premier Atlanta Real Estate will help you market, prep and price your home so that you can sell with success. Give me a call at 404-561-1842!2017-05-03T12:17:00-07:002017-08-11T07:33:42-07:00Marci Chambers Smithtag:premieratlantarealestate.com,2012-09-20:1326Keys to Successful House HuntingUse the tried and true newspaper reporters tool to have a fabulous home buying experience! Answer these five Ws and one H to buy your next home with confidence and success!
<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/678/image/key-metal-home-security-67609_800.jpg" alt="" width="800" height="531" class="img_box_center" />
Why Do You Want A New Home?<br />The first, and most important question you need to ask yourself is “Why do I want to move?”. Your reason or motivation for moving will drive the rest of the process and will help you answer the rest of the questions. Maybe you are taking a new job in a new city. Maybe you want to be closer to the grandkids. Maybe your family is growing and you need more space. Or maybe you are just ready for new home. Whatever the reason you have for moving, it is the right reason, and it will play a key role in helping you make those key home buying decisions. Figure out your big “WHY” and then keep that as the focus during your house hunting.
How Much Do You Want To Spend?<br />This will be one of the most expensive purchases you will ever make so you need to begin with a discussion about financing. ALL HOME BUYERS NEED TO MEET WITH THEIR BANKER OR A LENDER BEFORE LOOKING AT ANY HOMES! Pardon my “shouting” - but having your financial ducks in a row before embarking on the home buying process is a crucial step you should take to ensure you start off the process on the right foot. If paying cash, your banker can discuss the status of your accounts, your budget, and provide you with a letter verifying you have the funds available to purchase a home. If financing with a mortgage, the lender can help determine your budget and provide information on the various loan programs available to you, as well as providing documentation of your pre-qualification. The professionals can also help you determine if it is not quite the right time, financially, to purchase a home. Take all the great info you glean from your visit to the bank and use it to set realistic expectations and a sensible budget for your home purchase. And as an added bonus, getting your financing locked down, puts you in the perfect position to act quickly when you find your dream home. In this fast moving, low inventory market, being ready to make an offer is essential to getting the house you want.
Where You Want To Be?<br />You probably have heard the adage “The three most important things in real estate are location, location, location.” Figuring out WHERE you want to live is vital to buying a house. What state, city, town, school district, neighborhood? Do you need to be close to work or other family members? Do you want your home to face a certain direction? Do you want to live on a cul-de-sac or near the freeway? Would you like to be within walking distance of entertainment or public transportation? If you need some guidance, ask family, friends and co-workers to give you recommendations. Your professional real estate agent is an excellent source for community and school information. Your budget can often impact where you will be looking for a home, so it is important to research the price-points of the areas where you are interested in living. Knowing where you want to be is paramount to conducting an efficient and effective home search.
What Do You Want?<br />When buying a home, the options can seem endless and overwhelming. It is important to wrap your head around WHAT you want before you start looking. First you need to ask yourself what features are the most needed and the most wanted, and why. Make a list of your top five necessities in a new home. Buying a home with someone else? Have all parties make a list of their top fives, and then compare notes and discuss. Come to an agreement on those items that will be deal breakers and the things that would be “nice to haves”. No house will have everything on your wishlist - so you need to be ready to decide on which items you are willing to compromise.
Here is a shortlist of things to think about:<br />Style: ranch, traditional, contemporary, colonial, cape cod, farmhouse, etc.?<br />How many bedrooms?<br />Do you need a basement?<br />How many garage spaces do you need?<br />What type of kitchen do you want? Gas or electric cooktop?<br />Do you need to accommodate any current or future mobility requirements?<br />How important is a yard? How much yard do you need?<br />What types of finishes and fixtures do you like? <br />(always remember, finishes, fixtures and paint can be changed!)
When Do You Want To Move?<br />Timing is everything! The timing of your move can be affected by many of the factors we have previously discussed. You may need to relocate in time for the start of a new job. Is there a house to sell first? You might need to complete your taxes to maximize your financing options. Is there a baby on the way requiring a move in nine months or less? Or maybe you need to wait til the end of your current lease. Think about the optimum time to be in your new home - you will want to start home hunting at least three to four months before that time. Also, it is necessary to study the current market. We have been experiencing low inventory nationwide, making it challenging for home buyers to find homes to purchase. Because of that, it may take a little longer to find the right home. If you have very specific needs regarding location or features, your search may take a little longer, as well. Being flexible regarding the timing of your move will give you many more options for potential homes to purchase and will work to your advantage in the negotiation stage. Before commencing your home search, you need to make sure you know when the TIME is right for your move.
Who Do You Want To Work With?<br />Buying a home can be challenging, whether you are a first time homebuyer or have several house purchases under your belt. Every transaction is unique. You need a REAL ESTATE PROFESSIONAL on your side to help you navigate the entire process. A great agent not only works with you to find the right house, but also helps you negotiate a solid contract and completes all the necessary details to see the whole process through to the closing table. Look for an agent that is a good communicator, detail oriented, a strong negotiator, and swift in taking action or responding to requests. But most importantly, your agent should be focused on your needs and should look out for your best interests. Get recommendations from family, friends and valued advisors. Chat with potential agents to see if you “click” and to see how they operate. A great agent is knowledgeable and forthright and willing to hunt down the answer to any of your questions. Remember, you are working with a professional - they have first hand knowledge and expertise regarding the market, best practices, and how to make your transaction have the best outcome. Listen to your agent’s experienced advice and work together to find and purchase a wonderful new home!
Give me a call today to chat about finding a new home that fits the who, what, when, where, why and how much. Let’s discuss how I can help you find a property that will fit your needs as well as check off items on your wish list. I want to make sure your next home purchase is an enjoyable and rewarding experience!2017-03-29T11:39:00-07:002019-06-14T03:41:11-07:00Ryan Wardtag:premieratlantarealestate.com,2012-09-20:1325Your Guide To Home InspectionsYou have searched and searched and finally found that perfect home to purchase... what is the next step? As soon as you have a property under contract the next important step in the home buying process is conducting an inspection of the property. A home inspection is a valuable tool in evaluating the condition, soundness and safety of the property. The resulting report is a fantastic source of information about the home you are buying, and can highlight items that need to be addressed prior to purchase.
<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/678/image/home-inspection_800.jpg" alt="" width="800" height="433" class="img_box_center" />
A home inspection should be conducted by a professional, licensed, experienced and highly recommended home inspection contractor. As in every industry, there are good and bad home inspectors. Ask for recommendations from your real estate agent - they have worked with many inspectors and have valuable insights to help with the selection process. Your agent will know which inspectors will provide the best and most useful information and provide excellent customer service, all for a reasonable price. You can also ask trusted family and friends for inspector recommendations. Once a professional is selected, your agent will schedule the inspection, coordinating with the listing agent and home seller.
A home inspection is usually paid for by the buyer. On the day of the inspection, the buyer (along with the buyer's agent) is invited to walk through the property with the inspector so they can verbally discuss and visually point out any findings . The inspector will also provide a written report for the buyer and agent to review, documenting all the things they observed while evaluating the property.
What is usually evaluated as a part of the inspection:<br />• Structure of property, including foundation and framing.<br />• Exterior features such as siding, soffit, porches, decks, walkways, and driveways.<br />• Roof system including shingles, flashing and skylights.<br />• Electrical system including service panels, breakers and/or fuses.<br />• Plumbing systems including pipes, drains, water heating equipment and sump pumps.<br />• Heating and cooling systems.<br />• Interior features including walls, ceilings, floors, windows, doors, stairs and railings.<br />• Insulation and ventilation including those in the attic and other unfinished spaces.<br />• Fireplaces including chimneys and vents.
Additional items that may be included - check with the inspector:<br />• Kitchen appliances and central vacuum systems.<br />• Lawn sprinkler systems.<br />• Fire and smoke detection and suppression systems.<br />• Detached structures like a garage or shed.<br />• Code compliance.
Items that usually require a separate evaluation by your inspector or from another contractor:<br />• Environmental hazard report like radon, asbestos or lead.<br />• Well systems.<br />• Termite and pest report.<br />• Hot tubs and swimming pools.<br />• Alarm/intrusion detection systems.<br />• Television antenna or satellite dishes.
So what should be done with the information received from a home inspection? Inspection reports can be quite lengthy, covering dozens of items observed about the property. The information overload can often be mind-boggling to buyers. Try to not be overwhelmed. When walking through the property with the inspector, ask them to point out the items they think are most notable from a safety, structural and condition standpoint. When reading the report, critically note the items that are of a significant concern versus those that are meant to be informational in nature. Discuss the report with your real estate agent - they are an excellent source of knowledge and resources for answering questions raised by the inspection.
Remember, first and foremost, the inspection and resulting report are meant to be a tool to inform you about the property. No property is in perfect condition. If the inspector identifies problems, it doesn't mean you should or shouldn't buy the house, only that you will know in advance what to expect. And as I always say - the inspection report is NOT a punch list of items to fixed by the seller. Use your inspection to realistically and reasonably address concerns about the property you are about to purchase and to be more fully informed as you make your home buying decision.
One last tip - keep your inspection report handy once you move to your new home. The report is an excellent reference for planning routine maintenance and future improvements to your home.
For more information about standards, ethics and policies in home inspections, visit the National Association of Certified Home Inspectors. <a href="https://www.nachi.org/" target="_blank">https://www.nachi.org/</a>2017-02-27T12:56:00-07:002017-08-11T07:36:37-07:00Marci Chambers Smithtag:premieratlantarealestate.com,2012-09-20:1324Will You Be Early Out of the Gates?<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/678/image/horses_starting_gate_steve_fitzpatrick_800.jpg" alt="" width="800" height="548" class="img_box_center" />
You have probably heard lots of advice about the best time of the year to put your house on the market … “Spring! Sell in the spring, it’s the best time” they will say. But getting a jump on the real estate market may be your best opportunity to come up a winner when selling your home. Here are just a few of the ways listing your home in January and February can benefit you in the home selling race.
Inventory is Low
The holidays did little to slow down the robust real estate market and we find ourselves still deep into a Seller’s Market. What that means is inventory is low and there are not enough homes to meet the demand of the buyers in the current market. This is the case both nationally and locally. According to realtor.com, on a national level, active listings are down a staggering 11% when compared to 2015.* Here in Atlanta, intense demand is resulting in a 12.1% reduction of listings compared to this time last year.
So who remembers their Economics 101 class? Bueller? Bueller? When demand is high and the inventory is low, it is the BEST TIME TO SELL! As long as you follow the professional and knowledgeable advice of your carefully selected listing agent, you will likely be able to get more for your home and sell quickly.
As we head in to the spring months, inventory will inevitably increase. Your home will have more competition, you will have to work extra hard to get the attention of the buyers out shopping. That may mean pricing lower than the house for sale around the corner, making extra updates to your home, and dealing with fickle buyers. Be the star of the show by listing your house in January or February reap the rewards!
Serious Buyers
People who are house hunting in January and February are usually serious buyers. Whether it is job, family or school related - house hunters that are looking early in the year are ready to buy and have a sense of URGENCY. As a seller, you want those serious buyers to give you serious offers because those offers have a better chance of making it to the closing table.
Spring Fever
I don’t know about where you live, but it is already heating up here in Atlanta. And when the temps go up, the buyers start buying. Even if you are in colder climates, buyers start doing their research online right after the holidays. Why not have your stellar listing pop up on their screen so that they can’t get it out of their mind and HAVE TO BUY NOW! Take full advantage of the spring fever and be the house they fall in love with.
Movin’ On Up
Chances are you will be selling your home to move on to something bigger and better. Timing the sale of your home to optimize the purchase of your next home can be tricky. The best advice I can give you is START EARLY and have a great real estate agent to coach you through the challenges. You want to be ready to buy with confidence, a great offer and the most options.
Will you be early out of the gate? Fast off the starting line? You need a professional agent with outstanding marketing, customer service and negotiation skills to help you list your home and cash in on the opportunities of the early spring housing market. Give me a call!
<a href="http://public.tableau.com/views/ECONDB_REDSHIFT_TEMPLATE_MarketSpotlight/Dashboard1?:embed=y&:loadOrderID=0&:display_count=yes" target="_blank">* Real Estate Trends</a>2017-01-18T16:30:00-07:002017-08-11T07:37:19-07:00Marci Chambers Smithtag:premieratlantarealestate.com,2012-09-20:1323A New Home for Christmas? <img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/678/image/blog/christmas-present-housesm_300.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="200" class="img_box_right" />Have you been thinking about buying a new home, but planning to wait til spring? You might want to consider doing your home buying during the holidays... this can be a fantastic time of year for you to find that dream home and get a great deal! Who says the best presents come in small packages? How about a two story with a pool and a fireplace sized package? Let’s talk about a home shopping during the holidays.
Deals! Deals! Deals!
Let’s face it, no one really wants to put their house on the market during the holidays. Listing your home usually means the hassle of prepping the house for sale, and keeping it clean for showings, and scheduling open house events. Now try doing all that while putting up festive decorations, hosting special events, attending school programs, wrapping gifts, and still finding time for work and family. So a seller who has decided it is time to sell is probably finding that prospect a necessity, whether for a employment relocation, a family need, or any number of other reasons.
This is where you, as the buyer, can have some purchasing power. Homes on the market during this time may be ripe for offers under the list price, due to the urgency of the seller to sell. Sellers may be more willing to take care of those inspection items because they need to get moving. And if you have the ability to move quickly, sellers may be very happy to oblige a short escrow period. (one caveat - check with your lender to check for any delays the holidays pose regarding time needed for closing the transaction).
Houses that have been on the market a while will likely try to price drop before or during the holidays to get some action on the home and get it sold before the end of the year. With fewer buyers in the market, sellers are trying everything they can to get more traffic to their property.
In the market for a new home? Many builders are anxious to get their spec homes (completed new homes) off the books for the current year, to clear the way for upcoming construction projects. This can mean close-out pricing and added incentives, such as basement completion or add-on allowances, to get those homes sold. December is a great time to buy a spec home!
What competition?
During the hot selling season - usually in the spring, possibly longer - buyers can often find themselves up against several other buyers vying for a home - especially the really great homes in great locations. This can make the home buying process frustrating. Potential new homeowners get their hopes up and then face defeat and frustration as they are beat out in a bidding war. And that happens over and over again. But during the holidays, there are definitely not as many buyers in the market. This can mean much less frustration for buyers with the home shopping process AND less need for bidding wars and over-inflated offers to beat the competition - YEAH! Win-Win!
Oh, and you can get some tax benefits too!
Purchasing a home before December 31 can help you come tax time - you can deduct property taxes, mortgage interest, origination points on your loan, and interest costs. Every little bit helps when April 15 rolls around. Check with your preferred tax professional to explore your tax savings options.
Lenders Lull
It’s a slow time for mortgage bankers too, so loan officers may be offering special incentives and possibly waiving or reducing origination fees. With less transactions happening during the holidays, underwriting may be able to provide a quicker turnaround time than possible during the busy season. Before looking at homes, make an appointment with a lender to chat about your budget and finances, as well as any perks they are offering for buyers during the holiday season.
Let’s find a place to hang some mistletoe!
So what do you say? Want to get a new home from Santa? I may not be an elf, but I can sure help you find a wonderful home and will work hard to get you a fabulous deal. Give me a call to help you find that perfect picture window in the perfect house for your family Christmas tree.2016-12-06T11:59:00-07:002017-08-11T07:37:58-07:00Marci Chambers Smithtag:premieratlantarealestate.com,2012-09-20:1312Less Foreclosures in Alpharetta Means Less Downward Pressure on Prices<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/678/image/alpharetta-prices-vs-foreclosures_332.jpg" alt="" width="280" height="332" class="img_box_left" />The number of foreclosure sales in Alpharetta in the last 60 days is down 84% from the same time last year. There have only been 6 foreclosure sales in the last 60 days of this year compared with 38 sales during the same period last year This is an amazing statistic if you think about it!
Foreclosures depress home prices because many buyers prefer them and appraisers use them as comparable sales to arrive at valuations for other homes. This is inline with what RealtyTrac reports nationally showing a 29% decline in Q3 of 2013 compared to Q3 of 2012 of foreclosure sales. Of course, foreclosures have always been below the national averages in Alpharetta, but with only 6 selling in the last 60 days, I believe we can make a few observations:
With this few foreclosure sales, prices will not be pressured downward any longer. We've seen this trend happening for about 1 year and half, but these numbers really put the end to any further speculation.
For buyers seeking a "deal", they are gone. It's time we now assess this market from the point of view of value again. Of course, you can still get a deal, but it's based on value, not price.
For sellers, this is great news because buyers no longer have the low priced options they had in previous years so you will see more real buyers and few low ball offers. This should mean prices wil continue to rise (see <a href="https://www.premieratlantarealestate.com/alpharetta-home-prices/">Alpharetta home prices</a> if you would like to know what your home is worth) provided the economy does not fall out from under us because of what is happening in Washington (I don't see tha happening).
Overall sales don't seem to be trending up from last year, but with supply so low due to fewer foreclosures and the lack of equity for traditional sellers, we remain in a sellers market. The caveat here is that inventory has been slowly rising for 4 straight months bringing us closer to a balanced market to that of a seller's market.
This means it is a great time to consider selling your home either right now or in the springtime. Make sure you get the facts from a REALTOR® and avoid using a zestimate to get your home's price information. It's only good if you are comfortable with a price that is +/- 30% of what it is actually worth!<br /><br />Related Links<a href="https://www.premieratlantarealestate.com/alpharetta/" target="_blank">Alpharetta Homes for Sale</a>2013-10-11T06:04:00-07:002017-05-18T23:15:25-07:00Ryan Wardtag:premieratlantarealestate.com,2012-09-20:1302Pricing a Home in a Down Market - You Can't Underprice a HomeThis is something that we (and I think many other agents) struggle with in the market today. We meet with a client and go over what we believe should be the list price of a home and it's seldom a pleasant conversation. Typically, sellers know it's worth less than it was a few years ago, but getting the price right today really is more important than it used to be.
A home gets it's most activity from potential buyers in the early part of a listing period - the first 2 weeks. If it isn't priced for the market, it won't get an offer. Still, seller's feel they need to leave room to negotiate because they feel they need to squeeze every penny they can out of their sale. It's a fair enough idea, but it isn't grounded in what the data says they should do.
First, I'd like to discuss an important concept that regularly gets overlooked by both seller's and agents: It's impossible to underprice a home. Let me reiterate - you can't underprice your home. In a free market, it doesn't matter if you underprice by $1,000 or $50,000. It will sell for as much as the market will pay. Not more, not less.
So let's try to do a better job of recognizing the understandable objection about pricing and do a better job of explaining how the market works. If you list your home for the correct price, it will sell and it will happen fast regardless of your price point. It's not like homes aren't selling (see chart).
<img title="home-sales_610" src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/678/image/home-sales_610.png" alt="home-sales_610" width="610" height="421" class="img_box_center" />
As you can see from this chart which shows home sales during this declined market, home sales are actually quite consistent. It's just that only the ones that represent exceptional value sell. If you price it at the right number, it's impossible for it not to sell. So the obvious question is that if you list it low and it sells fast, doesn't it meant that you could have listed it a little higher, waited and got a higher offer? The answer is of course no. Emphatically. If you overprice your home and need a price reduction to sell, it will sell for less than it would have had you priced it correctly to begin with (see charts below).
<img title="priced-right_610" src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/678/image/priced-right_610.png" alt="priced-right_610" width="610" height="430" class="img_box_center" />
<img title="best-pricing_610" src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/678/image/best-pricing_610.png" alt="best-pricing_610" width="610" height="428" class="img_box_center" />
This second chart is very telling. If you price high and reduce, it will sell for less than it would have had you priced it correctly to begin with.
It is possible however to have missed the mark by pricing it a little bit too low. Guess what happens next...you get multiple offers and the price will be brought up to the highest possible price.
Still not convinved? Look how long it will take if you overprice your home instead of pricing it correctly (pay special attention to the fact that it doesn't matter at all at what price point your home is in).
<img title="days-on-market_610" src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/678/image/days-on-market_610.png" alt="days-on-market_610" width="610" height="416" class="img_box_center" />
Red is the time to sell of homes that did not get a price reduction. Yellow is homes priced correctly at the start.
So, don't fear low pricing. It's your best chance to get the highest amount for your home.2011-09-21T08:23:00-07:002019-06-14T03:52:09-07:00Ryan Wardtag:premieratlantarealestate.com,2012-09-20:1284Summer Speeds by Taking Deals of a Lifetime with It<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/678/image/alpharetta-time-lapse.jpg" alt="Exit 9 Facing South" title="Exit 9 Facing South" height="198" width="610" class="img_box_center" />Summer of 2009 is coming to a close quickly and some of the best deals in a generation are leaving with it. Were you able to capitalize on those deals or are you still waiting for prices to drop? If you're waiting, here is a recap of what you missed and why you may reconsider your position of waiting...and oh yeah...it looks like prices aren't really dropping any more - at least for good properties and especially in the more sought after areas of AtlantaThe average price for a home has dropped 8% in North Fulton since the summer of 2008, but, prices are trending up, sales volume is trending up and inventory is trending down. We are still down in price from the summer of 2008 because pricing continued to decline until February of 2009 (they have been rising since). It seems as though market forces are correcting the market even without the inducements provided by the government and we are really expecting a surge of closings as the $8,000 tax credit expires at the end of November. Whether it gets extended or renewed is up for debate. I hope they renew rather than extend. I think it will induce more sales that way.Nevertheless, deals are going fast. Unfortunately there are still far too many know-it-alls that think prices in Atlanta are going to be dropping another 15%-20%. I feel bad for these people because they fall into the "clueless" group and will miss the deals. Too bad, but, I suppose I can't convince everyone - nor should I try to, I suppose.Here are some statistics that indicate real changes for the better in the market:Positive year over year closings (more this year than last, sales volume is up).Total price declines are continuing to decrease and would almost disappear by precluding condos and townhomes.Average prices are up $43,000 from the low in February 2009.December of 2006 was the last time inventories were as low as they are right now!Expired listings are down - again. That's nine straight months of decline.Now, the decision is yours, but, if you ignore the very obvious changes happening in the market, you really could miss the best time to buy. Will there be more great deals? Of course there will be, but, there are really great deals in any market so that is not a reason to not get into the market. Furthermore, some areas have submarkets that resemble a seller's market, but, I'll spend some more time on that this coming week.If you have any questions interpreting these or other statistics, please drop a comment below and I'll be happy to help :)2009-09-13T08:41:00-07:002017-05-11T08:45:41-07:00Ryan Wardtag:premieratlantarealestate.com,2012-09-20:1282Homes for Sale in Crooked Creek - A Market Update<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/678/image/crooked-creek-golf-course_350.jpg" alt="Crooked Creek Golf Course" title="Crooked Creek Golf Course" height="350" width="234" class="img_box_left" />Crooked Creek is a fantastic golf and country club community located in Milton undergoing something of an unusual change for a neighborhood in the real estate market today. A robust $4,000,000 renovation to the facilities is being undertaken in a real estate market that has just taken a beating over the past few years. With homes dating to the mid nineties, many people believed that these updates may do the community well and freshen up the general appearance. This may still happen, but, construction is behind schedule and we'll really have to wait another year to see if that plays out. Until then, here is an update on market statistics. Faced with lots of competition in the zip code for similarly priced homes, staging, marketing and price ring true as the most important factors to get home sold in the neighborhood and not listing your home for sale with an agent who "knows" or "lives in" the neighborhood. Those old myths never actually helped sell houses and do even less in a compressed real estate market.
There are currently 44 homes for sale in <a href="https://www.premieratlantarealestate.com/crooked-creek-homes-for-sale/" title="Crooked Creek">Crooked Creek</a> as well as at least one additional home for sale by owner. Four of these are under contract. One of the under contract homes is in The Enclave. Four more of the active homes are in The Enclave. That leaves Crooked Creek proper with 36 active listings and 3 under contract or 1 in 12. A strong market (one that is good for sellers) would have 1 in 3 or 1 in 4 homes under contract at the high point of the selling season. In the last 3 months there have been 7 sales for an average sales rate of 2.33 per month. This makes the absorption rate in Crooked Creek 15.5 which means that there is 15.5 months of inventory if homes continue to sell at the current pace of sales AND if no additional homes enter the market during those 15.5 months. This is extremely high. It is so high in fact that it will not be possible for homes to maintain their current values. There is nothing to keep prices stable so we can expect at least another 5% drop in home values in Crooked Creek before next summer and it may be closer to 10% before it is all said and done and prices level off.
All of the work in progress with the new facilities will do nothing to increase values and since it is not going to be finished this summer, it will be of no help reducing the inventory levels now as it cannot help to attract potential buyers so moving into spring of 2010 there is no tangible reason to see home values stabilize or increase. Furthermore, the costs associated with the facilities make it more expensive than comparable neighborhoods which ultimately will hurt rather than help resale homes in Crooked Creek.
When compared with the same price point as homes for sale in the zip code, <a target="_blank" href="http://www.crookedcreekhomesforsale.com">homes for sale in Crooked Creek</a> underperform. There are 308 homes for sale in 30004 in the same price range as that of Crooked Creek. There are 38 homes under contract. That means 1 and 8 homes are under contract compared with 1 in 12 for Crooked Creek. In the last 3 months, 73 homes have sold. That is an average of 24.3 homes per month. The supply of homes is 12.7 months. All of which is better than what is happening within Crooked Creek.
Although Crooked Creek may offer a better value than many of the other golf/country club neighborhoods in North Atlanta Country Club Corridor, buyers are not finding the additional amenities offered compared to other neighborhoods – (many of which have newer homes) – worth the price and the statistics bear that out. Of the 12 homes that are currently under contract in 30004 between $400,000 and $500,000, none are in Crooked Creek. Of the 26 homes that have sold in the last 3 months at that price point, 2 are in Crooked Creek. With 81 active listings and 12 under contract at this price point, the ratio of active to pending homes is 1 in 6.75 – again, none in Crooked Creek.2009-07-20T16:51:00-07:002019-06-14T03:54:08-07:00Ryan Wardtag:premieratlantarealestate.com,2012-09-20:1280Spring Market Update for Metro AtlantaThe ups and downs (mostly downs) of the market are likely to continue, at least for most of this year and there is a good chance that the next six months will be the hardest summer selling season yet if you are a seller, but, the statistics are definitely showing some important and changing trends that you probably are not hearing about on the news. What we need to look at is one month from one year compared to the same month from a previous year. This counterbalances annual cycles like the ones that we have here in Atlanta. That's the case everywhere, but I digress. An increase in December over November is meaningless to the market as that is the case every year.Below are a few sales graphs that I want to explain before you read them and then I'll add some further information below them. The first graph is all residential sales volume of single family homes by month. Below that is only new construction sales. The third is all non-new construction sales. Before you look at them, I want to explain why I did this. A few weeks ago, we had a presentation in our office explaining that the median price difference in Atlanta between new construction and similar resale homes was at an all time high of $122,000. This difference in afford ability has created a very interesting scenario in the real estate market in Atlanta that will begin playing out later this year and will mark the beginning of the end of the downturn locally unless something else terrible happens.Remember this point for later: New construction cannot come down in price while resale home value can drop. It's going to be important to see what's happening in the market.O.K., let's look at these graphs. The first is all residential single family sales in Metro Atlanta for 2007, 2008:<img width="579" src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/678/image/atlanta-single-family-sales-volume_579.png" alt="atlanta-single-family-sales-volume_579" height="339" title="atlanta-single-family-sales-volume_579" class="img_box_center" />What I haven't graphed for you is sales price, but, I figure you don't need me or anyone else to tell you that prices have come down. Remember, moving forward, this becomes a simple issue of supply and demand. As prices drop, sales volume will increase. Next let's look only at what has happened to new construction sales volume:<img width="582" src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/678/image/atlanta-single-family-new-construction-sales-volume_582.png" alt="atlanta-single-family-new-construction-sales-volume_582" height="341" title="atlanta-single-family-new-construction-sales-volume_582" class="img_box_center" />This graph has the January sales numbers, but they are really inconsequential for now. What I really want you to notice is what is happening to wards the end of the year. Remember earlier, when I pointed out the difference in resale and comparable new construction, that new construction pricing cannot drop the way resale prices can and that as prices drop, sales volume will increase. Now go back to the first graph and and take a closer look at the end of the year sales volume from 2007 and 2008. Notice that it is closer to the same than new construction is by itself. It's clear then that new construction prices have more to fall if they are going to begin to get to a point of year over year sales volume increase.Now let's look at what is happening in the largest segment of the Atlanta real estate market - residential resale:<img width="582" src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/678/image/atlanta-single-family-resale-sales-volume_582.png" alt="atlanta-single-family-resale-sales-volume_582" height="342" title="atlanta-single-family-resale-sales-volume_582" class="img_box_center" />Do you see what's happening? There is a lot for all of us to be excited about in this graph. Because residential resale prices have fallen, we should begin seeing year over year sales volume increases this summer consistently and don't be surprised if we see a few months earlier than the end of summer where year over year sales volume is above that of 2007. This will be the first real sign that the market is making a change! Don't go overboard. It's just the beginning and it won't start in earnest this year, but, it is happening.Now, don't think that this means sales prices are going to increase anytime soon. I don't think that they are and there is nothing to indicate that they are, but, they can't even begin to level off until the inventory of homes meets the sales volume somewhere under 10 months of supply. Of course, we will never get to that point unless sales volume increases. That begins with year over year sales volume increases and that is what we are going to begin seeing this summer.O.K., O.K., the caveat: This will not happen if the greater economy continues getting too much worse, but, it is likely to happen even if the unemployment rate reaches 10% nationally and it will probably be 10% in Georgia this summer anyway. There is nothing that is in the air to stop those type of unemployment numbers. But, when and ONLY when we begin to see year over year sales volume increases can we begin to get out of this devastating hole that we are in.So that's it. The trends are here. We are at the top cusp of the bottom of the market. There will be no real way to see that actual bottom until it passes. For some segments, it's here right now. For others, it's still at least a year away, most others are somewhere in the middle, but, know this: We are at the beginning of the bottom, unless the recession turns to a depression. Your welcome to bookmark this and come back in march of 2010 and tell me whether I was right or wrong :-)2009-03-09T17:20:00-07:002017-05-19T06:23:42-07:00Ryan Wardtag:premieratlantarealestate.com,2012-09-20:1278$15,000 Tax Credit Out, Housing Crisis Largely Ignored in Stimulus<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/678/image/money-vortex_380.jpg" class="img_box_left" />Now that the stimulus bill has passed the committees and is set to be signed by Obama as early as Monday, any hope that the bill would include help for the industry with the biggest problem and is the biggest reason we are in a recession is all but gone. While it could be argued that the $15,000 tax credit was not the right prescription, it would have sent a message that the problem was being addressed.<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aoBLH6KT_SBY&refer=home">Bloomberg reports this morning</a> that the bill weighs in at $789 Billion dollars and that instead of a $15,000 credit, there will be a $500 addition to the $7,500 tax LOAN already in place. Like most things in the behemoth, little details can be found. We could hope that they would remove the LOAN portion of the bill with all this money being thrown around, but, I suppose there is no real reason to address the core of the recession - the housing market. Why would we expect that congress would do that when they have so much money available to spend on pet projects? 4 Million dollars for tennis courts, 2 million for lights in Vega, 15 million for a sports park project that will create 15 jobs. Yes, that's $1,000,000 a job. Maybe I'm in the wrong business.So my questions are these: Since the entire real estate industry in a primary and secondary way makes up approximately 20% of the total GDP, why is the housing crisis, which is the root cause of the recession largely being ignored in the stimulus? Should we be outraged? Do you think that the money is being spent wisely? Do you believe this stimulus bill will help you and your family?2009-02-12T05:44:00-07:002017-05-16T11:55:38-07:00Ryan Wardtag:premieratlantarealestate.com,2012-09-20:1273Homes in Zip Code 30004 - Sales Down, Prices Up, but are They Really?<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/678/image/1_261.png" alt="1_261" class="img_box_left" />I suppose it depends on how you spin the statistics and I really don't intend on doing that. The general statistics don't really show a decline in prices and that just doesn't seem to feel right so I set out to separate the market into more manageable segments to see if some segments are performing better than others thereby skewing the total statistics. My hypothesis was that the resale market below $750,000 (this is anywhere bnetween 80% and 90% of the market) was doing something worse than the market as a whole. In other words, one portion of the market might be making the total market appear as a much better market than what most sellers and agents are actually seeing.
As I start this post, let me first explain what I did. My goal was to separate out and use the majority of the market - this is the segment that I am concerned about because it is the part that will be most meaningful to the majority of people and can help to shed some realistic light on what you need to do with your price if you really want to sell your house. So, I eliminated all homes that sold above $750,000. The chart below shows how little of the market it represents, how it performs and should help to indicate why it is not giving a true representation of homes for sale in zip code 30004.
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The Big Lie: North Fulton is Fine, Sales Prices are up and the Market is Strong
Nothing could be farther from the truth. Most of us who work here know it - even if it's more difficult to ascertain through statistics as you need to dig deep to find out why. The total number of sales of homes above $750,000 represents 10.5% of the total sales and more importantly - what happens in this segment of the market has very little (if any) impact on the other 90%. Now we can focus on what is actually happening in the market. This year, the average sales price of homes for sale in our target segment is $330,729 with a total of 119 sales. For same time period in 2007, the average sales price was $355,582 with 135 sales. This is a 7% decline in prices and a 12% decline in sales volume. So now that we know for sure that the majority of the market is down considerably, we can look at what is happening now and what we think will happen going forward, when the market will improve and what forces will affect that outcome in the near term (Spring 2009) and the intermeddiate term (next couple of years). Long term will be fine for many reasons that you probably already understand.
All of this is more in line with what we are seeing in the greater Metro Atlanta real estate market and won't be returning anytime soon. The 2 real estate factors that will affect this more than anything else is the lower availability of loans and a supply that is still too high. New housing starts remain low, but, the sales volume isn't really there to reduce the supply quickly enough to bring supply and demand back into balance for at least another year. We aren't likely to see the sales volume increase to pre-subprime meltdown for years so that leaves lower supply as the only direct real estate factor that can mitigate continuing declines in prices. This means we cannot have any more new construction start anmd hopefully the real estate cheerleaders will stay quiet through spring of 2009 and not lend flase hope to sellers who will then have unrealistic expectations and list their homes at inflated prices.
So, No. Prices are not really up. If you would like to call that spin because I eliminated a segment that I don't believe helps to draw an accurate conclusion on the rest of the market, please feel free to go ahead. I call it a pragmatic look at the realities of the market. The reality in zip code 30004 as with all other areas of North Fulton is that prices, generally speaking, are likely to continue to slide a bit more. It doesn't meen that you can't find a deal now that is already at the bottom, but, it does mean that you should be cautious about any purchase you make and do so only once you have had an opportunity to really understand the forces at work in the market right now.<br /><br />Related Links<a href="https://www.premieratlantarealestate.com/homes-for-sale-in-zip-code-30004/" target="_blank">Homes for Sale in Zip Code 30004</a>2008-12-22T13:20:00-07:002017-05-18T03:02:58-07:00Ryan Wardtag:premieratlantarealestate.com,2012-09-20:1272Alpharetta Market Sales Down, Prices Relatively Constant - What Happens Next?When sales volume goes down and inventory stays the same, what happens to prices? This would be something like Economics .101 - A Middle School/High School level economics question. The answer should be obvious - over time, prices will fall setting in motion a series of events which ultimately will bring inventories back in line with sales volume as the pendulum swings in the other direction. It makes sense, but, it's not what we see hapening in Alpharetta and some other areas of North Fulton. It may mean however that prices will fall, but, conventional wisdom would leave me to believe that it would have alread been happening. This first chart shows the decline in sales volume for Alpharetta:
Sales Volume in Alpharetta 2007 vs. 2008
The second chart here shows the sales prices from 2007 to 2008 and if you look closely at the chart, there really isn't anything indicating a drop in prices:
Sales Prices for Alpharetta 2007 vs. 2008
Outside of the price change in October of 2008, there is nothing to indicate that prices are falling and no, a one month decline like that is not enough to draw any conclusions whatsoever. If we see three months of year-to-year sales drops then we will have a trend.
What Happens Next?
I am of the opinion, personally, that there is absolutely nothing that can be done to increase sales volumes to 2006 and 2007 levels short of reinstating subprime loans and I wouldn't wish that on anyone or any real estate market. It is one of the leading causes of why we are where we are right now. Lower interest rates could help, but, not enough to increase sales volume back to pre-slowdown numbers. There aren't really very many variables that can change; sales volume, prices and inventory along with the local and national economy. Each of these has a subset of variables that can affect any and all of them. So which of these variables is likely to change in the near future?
Sales volume? I don't think so. Like I said, lower rates will help some, but, we cannot replace the number of loans available compared with how many were available while we had the subprime loans simply by lowering interest rates. So there isn't anything that will shake up this variable.
Prices? For many of us actively selling real estate right now, it's apparent that the majority of buyers do not see value at the current prices. This is helping to keep volume down. Many people who would sell simply do not have the equity to sell at the current prices it would take to sell there home. There is a real chance that we will see prices go down, but, as of right now, it hasn't happened. Lower prices could increase sales volume reducing inventory, but, at what cost to more homeowners if prices go down?
Inventory? How does inventory drop if sales volume is down? Either less people list their homes (not likely), prices drop or more loans become available. None of which is happening right now.
<a href="https://www.premieratlantarealestate.com/alpharetta/">Alpharetta homes for sale</a> have been affected less by the slowdown than many other areas, but I'm not sure that it can be sustained forever. With a local, state and national economy all in a recession and consumer confidence very low, we need either time or some yet to be seen market force enter into the equation if the market is to return to a more balanced state any earlier than 2010.2008-12-17T08:31:00-07:002017-05-18T00:36:54-07:00Ryan Ward