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        <title>Atlanta Real Estate Blog</title>
        <link>http://www.premieratlantarealestate.com/blog/tags/atlanta/</link>
        <description>Atlanta real estate blog. Consumer focused real estate information for Atlanta and information and insight into local and national topics. Areas of interest include; Buckhead, Sandy Springs, Roswell &amp; Alpharetta. North Metro Atlanta.</description>
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            <guid>http://www.premieratlantarealestate.com/blog/3rd-quarter-atlanta-market-statistics-video.html</guid>
            <link>http://www.premieratlantarealestate.com/blog/3rd-quarter-atlanta-market-statistics-video.html</link>
            <author>ryan@premieratlantarealestate.com (Ryan C Ward)</author>
            <title>3rd Quarter Atlanta Market Statistics - Video</title>
            <description> <![CDATA[ 
The 3rd quarter is over and it was not great - but not really worse than most analysts expected. During the second quarter (and before the statistics were complete), many of us thought that we would see year over year increases in sales volume, but those numbers were more heavily influenced by the tax credit than was factored in to many of the early interpretations. It now looks like we will end up a couple percent down in sales volume and 5-6% down in sales price. ANother significant statistics for real estate here localy is that for the first time, RE/MAX is no longer the number one real estate company in Atlanta. Keller Williams surpassed RE/MAX in the number of closed sides of real estate transactions. Congrats to all of us at KW in Metro Atlanta!

While the numbers look down, the truth is that it is marginal- more sideways really - and not as bad as the bottom (January 2009). There is a chance still that we may set a new bottom in January or February of 2011, but in the bigger picture it will be more accurate to say that we are really just continuing to drag along the bottom. The actuaries can come back later and pinpoint the exact moment of the day, week, month and year of the bottom because if that is what you are looking for before you buy a house then you have miscalculated how to avoid risk in the real estate market. I'm not saying go blindly into your next purchase - only that we are at the bottom and it's not possible to judge the exact moment although it is probably a safe assumption that if you buy right now you aren't likely to see significant equity increases based upon appreciation in the next 2-3 years. On the other hand you aren't too likely to lose money if you work with a competent professional to help navigate the minefield that is the current market with lots of great opportunities and lots of really bad ones! Sorry for the digression....below is the video (I'm still working on some technical qualities, but this is pretty decent). It's about 10 minutes long...

3rd Quarter Metro Atlanta Market Statistics&nbsp;

#3q-2010-market-stats#&nbsp;

&nbsp;
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            <pubDate>Fri, 29 Oct 2010 10:48:49 -0400</pubDate>
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            <guid>http://www.premieratlantarealestate.com/blog/atlanta-real-estate-market-looking-back-so-we-can-look-ahead-2007-2009-sold-prices.html</guid>
            <link>http://www.premieratlantarealestate.com/blog/atlanta-real-estate-market-looking-back-so-we-can-look-ahead-2007-2009-sold-prices.html</link>
            <author>ryan@premieratlantarealestate.com (Ryan C Ward)</author>
            <title>Atlanta Real Estate Market - Looking Back So We Can Look Ahead - 2007-2009 Sold Prices</title>
            <description> <![CDATA[ 
I've put together the same information two different ways in the charts below. To me, they show some interesting trends. While they don't give a complete picture, they do show how far we have fallen and the three year history begins to be enough to give us a nice perspective.&nbsp;

#seller-market-statistics#

#2007-2009-one-line-graph#

Inventories dropped every month in 2009 and the market looks to have stabilized somewhat during the second have of 2009 (see the first chart and compare the second half of 2008 to the same time in 2009.&nbsp;Prices did not continue to fall). There were less than 45,000 homes on the market at the end of 2009. At it's worst in August 2007, there were 72,000 homes. The last time the end-of-month inventory for all single family was below December 2009 was December 2005 and that is the best news in this report! Surely, the tax credit played some influence on helping to increase demand and lower supply. With the extension, we may well see a continued reduction in inventory but we will also see a reduction in demand.

Let's call the post-tax-credit demand level the &quot;new normal&quot;. When we get to the &quot;new normal&quot; demand level, will inventory levels be lowered sufficiently so that prices can fully stabilize? I don't think it's possible to answer that question fully and since it's an election year it's even possible to see another extension of the tax credit. If I had to pace a wager on it I would say no because the timing of the expiration is ill-conceived. It runs out at the end of the busiest month (June), but, July and August are traditionally strong months and I don't think that we will see the traditionally strong sales volume in July and August because many of those sales will be compressed into May and June. That could leave us with lingering summer inventory into the fall and winter that will carry over to 2011.

Foreclosure Fears and Pricing - Forget it

Let's put this to bed. Banks are not stupid. There will NEVER be a flood of foreclosures. That would devastate the value of these bank owned assets and could destroy the banks. It's just not going to happen. Okay?

A better question remains as it has for the last 2 or 3 years. Is it safe to buy a house now? For that answer, you really will need to contact me or your own trusted real estate professional who is proficient in real estate market statistics because you will need to be more specific. For some, we are at or have passed the bottom, for others it's a long way off still. 
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            <pubDate>Thu, 21 Jan 2010 13:53:15 -0500</pubDate>
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            <guid>http://www.premieratlantarealestate.com/blog/auctions-and-value-things-arent-what-they-seem.html</guid>
            <link>http://www.premieratlantarealestate.com/blog/auctions-and-value-things-arent-what-they-seem.html</link>
            <author>ryan@premieratlantarealestate.com (Ryan C Ward)</author>
            <title>Auctions and Value - Things Aren't What They Seem</title>
            <description> <![CDATA[ 
Sold to the lady in the back for $435,000! What a deal! The screen says the previous value for this home was over $1,000,000. I've found it at last! Now I know exactly where to send every person who calls looking for that great deal. The auction!

If you're in the business and you get leads online, you definitely know the guy. Most others in the business know this guy now too. It's just a product of the current conditions. He acts like he knows more than you about real estate and before the phone call is over, he has made you feel like it's true. We get one almost daily, but the problem is, that guy doesn't have a clue about what he is talking about. If you are that guy, I suggest you re-read this paragraph.

I attended an auction this past Saturday with a friend/client as an exploratory event as a possible place to pick up homes that are in need of small repairs that can be flipped. My job is consultant here. The commission checks are small from auctions, but, it's more important to me that he buys the right houses at the right prices otherwise there is no chance to flip so it's a win/win partnership if I find the right houses. As this was a bit exploratory for both of us, I decided to pick a few houses to really watch closely at auction for a number of reasons. I wanted to know what the real &quot;previous value&quot; was, I wanted to know what they would sell for at auction and I figured the after repair value prior to getting there so I was ready to see how this unfolded.

The Auction

First, I need to say that it was quite a rush. I'd do it again. I think I will actually. The truth though, is considerably different than most people I have spoken with think it is as it relates to values and auctions. Of the homes I watched, none sold for the price I believed they needed to be purchased for anyone other than an owner occupied home. In other words, they sell for fair market value. Some for more than market value, but, that too is to be expected as the auctioneer is awesome! There are other homes - like those that might be in new construction neighborhoods that decimate value fro the entire neighborhood instantly. I watched as 6 houses were sold for between 80K - 90K where the values were in the 150's. Now, the 80K home isn't even a &quot;deal&quot;. That's what the whole neighborhood is worth! Look, if you don't know values going in and you rely on the information on the screen you are going to get burned and speaking of that information on&nbsp;the screen, it's hardly accurate. I don't know where it came from, but, most of these homes have histories that I can look up in 30 seconds to determine and let me tell you what was on screen and what the real &quot;previous values&quot; were did not match. It made these homes look to be much better deals than they really were. I saw a home that I said should sell for no more than 425K sell for 412K, but, the &quot;previous value&quot; was wrong (over 800K, it was never woth that). Later I saw something that they said was over one million dollars sell for a little over 400. It was listed in the 500's in the FMLS and didn't sell. Where is the great deal there? This is what happened over and over and at all different price points. &quot;Previous value&quot; of 115K, starting bids at 500 dollars, listed in the FMLS for $17,000 and selling for $10,000. Do you think that is a good deal? I could go on...

I watched for a few hours and was amazed at how free markets correct themselves so efficiently if allowed to do so. But, it occurred to me also that the deals really aren't that great - at least not on the whole and that makes them no different than regular listings for sale (unless you are the bank because they do liquidate properties). There are good deals and there are not so good deals. The problem with getting a good deal at an auction is as follows:

You have a room full of ready, willing and able buyers offering multiple offers on properties. None of that is what you want when you are in the market for a &quot;deal.&quot;

So, the takeaway goes something like this...most of the homes for sale at auction were already for sale. Some have histories that go back years now so we know a lot about these homes. Most of them sell for what they would sell for in a fair market sale. These are the homes that were listed too high to sell or did not have good enough marketing to illicit an offer that might have been acceptable to the bank. None of these homes made exceptional deals and most importantly....

Nobody bought a home for 40 cents on the dollar!
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            <pubDate>Mon, 26 Oct 2009 10:06:21 -0400</pubDate>
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            <guid>http://www.premieratlantarealestate.com/blog/the-tax-credit-effect-can-it-help-save-the-market.html</guid>
            <link>http://www.premieratlantarealestate.com/blog/the-tax-credit-effect-can-it-help-save-the-market.html</link>
            <author>ryan@premieratlantarealestate.com (Ryan C Ward)</author>
            <title>The Tax Credit Effect - Can it Help Save the Market</title>
            <description> <![CDATA[ 
After strong mid summer sales and real hope for 2010, the residential real estate outlook has dimmed again. The $8,000 tax credit is looking very much like the last great hope for 2009&nbsp;to bring back some&nbsp;balance - or at least give a strong push of the pendulum back in the balance direction. The chart below shows sold single family residential units compared to pending residential units monthly during 2009.

 


This text is replaced by chart. 
 



&nbsp;

The uptick is incredible and certainly caused by the end of the tax credit. We will have to see how much of this strong surge in pending sales actually close before making&nbsp;any real predictions&nbsp;for 2010&nbsp;and it will be mid to late December before the numbers arrive. If a large number of these homes do close, we&nbsp;should at least see one positive trend continue and that is a lowering of inventory.

The one consistent bright spot has been a steady and consistent reduction in inventory. With prices lowering again after the typical summer uptick, I believe the reason inventories continue to go down is related more to the fact that fewer people have enough equity to sell rather than anything else. Whatever the case, we need still need inventories to keep heading downward. We have yet to reach a balanced market so supply will continue to push prices down on a macro level&nbsp;due to low demand caused by stricter lending guidelines - even if some areas in the north metro area remain flat.

&nbsp;
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            <pubDate>Thu, 22 Oct 2009 14:49:57 -0400</pubDate>
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            <guid>http://www.premieratlantarealestate.com/blog/summer-speeds-by-taking-deals-of-a-lifetime-with-them.html</guid>
            <link>http://www.premieratlantarealestate.com/blog/summer-speeds-by-taking-deals-of-a-lifetime-with-them.html</link>
            <author>ryan@premieratlantarealestate.com (Ryan C Ward)</author>
            <title>Summer Speeds by Taking Deals of a Lifetime with It</title>
            <description> <![CDATA[ 


Summer of 2009 is coming to a close quickly and some of the best deals in a generation are&nbsp;leaving with it. Were you able to capitalize on those deals&nbsp;or are you still waiting for prices to drop? If you're waiting, here is a recap of what you missed and why you may reconsider your position of waiting...and oh yeah...it looks like prices aren't really dropping any more - at least for good properties and especially in the more sought after areas of Atlanta

The average price for a home has dropped 8% in North Fulton since the summer of 2008, but, prices are trending up, sales volume is trending up and inventory is trending down.&nbsp; We are still down in price from the summer of 2008 because pricing continued to decline until February of 2009 (they have been rising since). It seems as though market forces are correcting the market even without the inducements provided by the government and we are really expecting a surge of closings as the $8,000 tax credit expires at the end of November. Whether it gets extended or renewed is up for debate.&nbsp;I hope they renew rather than extend. I think it will induce more sales that way.

Nevertheless, deals are going fast. Unfortunately there are still far too many know-it-alls that think prices in Atlanta are going to be dropping another 15%-20%. I feel bad for these people because they fall&nbsp;into the &quot;clueless&quot; group and will miss the deals. Too bad, but, I suppose I can't convince everyone - nor should I try to, I suppose.

Here are some statistics that indicate real changes for the better in the market:


Positive year over year closings (more this year than last, sales volume is up).

Total price declines are continuing to decrease and would almost disappear by precluding condos and townhomes.

Average prices are up $43,000 from the low in February 2009.

December of 2006 was the last time inventories were as low as they are right now!

Expired listings are down - again. That's nine straight months of decline.


Now, the decision is yours, but, if you ignore the very obvious changes happening in the market, you really could miss the best time to buy. Will there be more great deals? Of course there will be, but, there are really great deals in any market so that is not a reason to not get into the market. Furthermore, some areas have submarkets that resemble a seller's market, but, I'll spend some more time on that this coming week.

If you have any questions interpreting these or other statistics, please drop a comment below and I'll be happy to help :)
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            <pubDate>Sun, 13 Sep 2009 11:41:03 -0400</pubDate>
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            <guid>http://www.premieratlantarealestate.com/blog/short-sales-101.html</guid>
            <link>http://www.premieratlantarealestate.com/blog/short-sales-101.html</link>
            <author>ryan@premieratlantarealestate.com (Ryan C Ward)</author>
            <title>Short Sales 101</title>
            <description> <![CDATA[ 
If you are in the market for a home or are trying to find a way to sell your home and feel you are upside down, you might think that the best option is a short sale or a foreclosure. In subsequent posts, I'll get into more detail about foreclosures and if you want to skip this, you can go straight to our Atlanta&nbsp;foreclosures page or our Atlanta MLS page to search for short sales more specifically.

I'd like to&nbsp;go over short sales first because there is definitely more confusion over them, more contract issues and more complications with getting them closed than foreclosures. In my experience, they are more difficult than most other transactions right now. With all of that said, they can also represent an excellent value - but not all the time and not for all people. To buy or sell a short sale, you need to have time. Lots of it and often times it is an indefinite amount of time. They&nbsp;typically take 3-4 months to close, but,&nbsp;can take 9-12 months as one agent in our office has been working on one since 2008. At the time this&nbsp;is being written, it will be&nbsp;10 months and still no answer on that one. The point is that if you want a short&nbsp;sale, you can forget the $8,000 tax credit,&nbsp;unless you don't really care if you get it because a guaranteed closing on a short sale prior to December 1st is impossible to guarantee. A short sale really is what it sounds like - the seller is trying to &quot;short&quot; his mortgage by asking the bank to accept less than what the seller owes. If you want a bank to accept less than paid in full it's going to take some time. Here's why:

Short sales have been around for a long time. That's not new. What is new is how it's being used by homeowners in a declining market and what constitutes a hardship. There are now&nbsp;more homeowners applying for a short sale than ever before and for many banks the prospect of foreclosure may be more expensive than the short sale so the bank may be inclined to accept a short sale.

About 18 months into the business I had my first experience with a short sale. My very first clients ever needed one because&nbsp;the husband died of Leukemia and&nbsp;she could no longer afford the house on her salary. To make&nbsp;things more difficult, they had a one year old baby shortly after they closed on their first home. It was a terrible situation and one that I spent a lot of time learning and researching how best to help her.&nbsp;I learned a great deal about short sales because of that very first one I put so much energy into. She applied for a short sale from the lender and was ultimately&nbsp;approved. The lender ordered an appraisal, the negotiator at the bank told me what their bottom line was and I listed the home at a price to achieve the bank's goal. Once we received an offer, we provided a HUD-1 (settlement statement) for the bank to review to make sure it met their bottom line and we closed a few weeks later. This was before the sub-prime mess and before the banks got flooded with short sales and foreclosures so the process was over in about 60 days start to finish. 

The Process&nbsp;

Today the process is very different and every lender has a different timeline and slightly different method. There is a cottage industry that has sprouted up with attorneys claiming to represent sellers to help get a short sale approved faster than can be done by the homeowner - I'm a bit skeptical, but, it's probably effective for some. It's just that there is no reason for it when a short sale expert real estate agent can easily handle it for you just as easily without injecting a third party into the process. There are also real estate agents who claim to be able to help other agents with just the short sale approval process - another middle man to me but maybe more effective as they are really just trying to help the listing agent get the short sale process moving more quickly. To be effective, you need bank forms and contact numbers that only come with experience in the short sale business. The number of short sales in the current market is so high that many lenders want an offer on a home before they will even consider a short sale. This is&nbsp;difficult for many to understand&nbsp;because you don't actually know for sure what defines a &quot;hardship&quot; so there can be uncertainty with whether a homeowner will ultimately be approved. With experience, we know what some things are that constitute a hardship, but, as a seller, you need real guidance on this. You will need to call me and talk about your specifics if you want me to&nbsp;explain what does and doesn't constitute a potential hardship.

The process is pretty straightforward. You work with the loss-mitigation department and typically fill out some financial forms from your lender and send them back. You are not likely to get anywhere until your paperwork is 100% complete. This part of the process can take a long time. A large institutional lender who has the loan of someone we are currently working with told us 3-4 months to hear if they would even be approved. You then need a loss mitigator&nbsp; - a negotiator for the bank - to order a BPO (Broker Price Opinion) or an appraisal for the home. Then the lender will at least know what they are working with and can accept or reject an offer. This can take time and there is a bit more to the process, but, that's basically how it begins.

The Contract&nbsp;

Then there are contract issues. They come from both sides of the transaction. A short sale really is a regular sale between a buyer and&nbsp;a seller that is contingent upon bank approval and binding when signed by the buyer and seller.&nbsp;It does not become binding when the bank approves it so what we see in practice is that many homes listed as short sales have such a compelling price that they illicit multiple offers. In a short sale scenario, a seller is not concerned with the net profit so often times they will sign all the offers and try to submit them all to the bank - this results in multiple buyers who may have a binding contract to purchase the home! A terrible mess to say the least.

As an expert in the field and with the help of an attorney, we have drawn up specific language to protect us as listing agents for short sales and for buyers agents for short sales to help protect all parties from mishaps from other parties and from ourselves sometimes :) but, they are not online somewhere and I am not going to post them&nbsp;online for all to see/take/share and add potential liability to myself if they aren't used correctly. You need a true expert to help you if you are buying or selling a short sale. Your family member in the business that is struggling in the bad market is the absolute last person to entrust this with.

Call Us

If you think it may be time for you to try and find a way out of a bad situation, call us and we will answer your questions and give you some honest advice on whether or not a short sale might be a realistic option. We aren't going to steer you one way or another.&nbsp;We need to know&nbsp;as much as possible&nbsp;in order for us to help you and us understand the entire situation. Just know that there is help available if you need it.

One Last Thing

Do not make the first phone call or inquiry about your position to your lender! They are under no obligation to accept a short sale so they are also under no obligation to answer your questions without finding out pertinent information which may cause them to decline you for a short sale. Call us or another professional first.
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            <pubDate>Thu, 27 Aug 2009 10:39:05 -0400</pubDate>
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            <guid>http://www.premieratlantarealestate.com/blog/waiting-for-the-bottom-you-may-have-missed-it.html</guid>
            <link>http://www.premieratlantarealestate.com/blog/waiting-for-the-bottom-you-may-have-missed-it.html</link>
            <author>ryan@premieratlantarealestate.com (Ryan C Ward)</author>
            <title>Waiting for the Bottom - You May Have Missed It</title>
            <description> <![CDATA[ 
Waiting around and smelling the flowers? If you are one of the many buyers waiting for the bottom, it's quite possible that you have missed it.&nbsp;Waiting on a &quot;bottom&quot; is&nbsp;a terrible&nbsp;homebuying strategy anyway, but, now is really the time to get off the fence. We as real estate professionals are not capable of exactly calling the bottom and that means that you as consumers have no chance of doing so. Think I'm wrong? We now have had four consecutive months where the average price of homes for sale in Atlanta is higher than the previous month. In February it $172,860. Now it's $209,999 or over $37,000 higher than the low!&nbsp;Translated, this means since February, prices have gone up every month so many areas the &quot;price bottom&quot; may be behind us. The confluence of low prices, high inventory and low interest rates presents itself as a window subject to close much faster than it opens so if you are going to move, you should know - it looks like the window is closing.

It's time to change what we call this. It's no longer a bad market or a good market. It's the new normal. For the next year to a year and a half, inventories will still be high and we will go through periods that see modest price declines but it will be hyperlocal, market and price point specific. The main reason is that loan qualifying has been constricted to shrink the sales volume, but, it looks like the market may be reaching a tipping point with inventory as it relates to sales volume. Next month (July) we are more than likely going to see resale home sales surpass those sales of 2008 based on pending sales now compared with pending sales at this time last year. That means the supply of homes is going to be heading down. With no loans available to build any new homes and people still moving to Atlanta, we are heading in a direction where there is a scarcity of new construction and a lowering supply of resales.

The only things that remain as unknowns are what interest rates will look like and how many more foreclosures continue into the market. The condo market is still looks to be shot for at least 2 years as the inventory levels are so high it will be that long before they have a chance to stabilize, but, many parts of Atlanta no longer resemble a buyers market. Many of those areas are in the northern suburbs of Roswell, Alpharetta, Johns Creek, Milton and parts of south Forsyth.

In other words for the best deals in the most coveted areas, it's probably over or very close to it. Get down from the fence, buy if you are going to buy&nbsp;or watch as the savvy buyers around you get the rest of the best deals as you sit and wait for the perfect storm to happen. It's happening around you right now. There will always be&nbsp;a group&nbsp;who take advantage of the market and another group of people who look back and say to himself that they wished they had. It's part of life and we all know people in both of those groups.

Which group of people do you belong to?
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            <pubDate>Wed, 22 Jul 2009 07:30:20 -0400</pubDate>
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            <guid>http://www.premieratlantarealestate.com/blog/spring-market-update-for-metro-atlanta.html</guid>
            <link>http://www.premieratlantarealestate.com/blog/spring-market-update-for-metro-atlanta.html</link>
            <author>ryan@premieratlantarealestate.com (Ryan C Ward)</author>
            <title>Spring Market Update for Metro Atlanta</title>
            <description> <![CDATA[ 
The ups and downs (mostly downs) of the market are likely to continue, at least for most of this year and there is a good chance that the next six months will be the hardest summer selling season yet if you are a seller, but, the statistics are definitely showing some important and changing&nbsp;trends that you probably are not hearing about on the news. What we need to look at is&nbsp;one month from one year compared to the same month from a previous year. This counterbalances annual cycles like the ones that we have here in Atlanta. That's the case everywhere, but I digress. An increase in December over November is meaningless to the market as that is the case every year.

Below&nbsp;are a few&nbsp;sales graphs that I want to explain before you read them and then I'll add some further information below them. The first graph is all residential sales volume of single family homes by month. Below that is only new construction sales. The third is all non-new construction sales. Before you look at them, I want to explain why I did this. A few weeks ago, we had a presentation in our office explaining that the median price difference in Atlanta between new construction and similar resale homes was at an all time high of $122,000. This difference in afford ability has created a very interesting scenario in the real estate market in Atlanta that will begin playing out later this year and will mark the beginning of the end of the downturn locally unless something else terrible happens.

Remember this point for later: New construction cannot come down in price while resale home value can drop. It's going to be important to see what's happening in the market.

O.K., let's look at these graphs. The first is all residential single family sales in Metro Atlanta for 2007, 2008:



What I haven't graphed for you is sales price, but, I figure you don't need me or anyone else to tell you that prices have come down. Remember, moving forward, this becomes a simple issue of supply and demand. As prices drop, sales volume will increase. Next let's look only at what has happened to new construction sales volume:



This graph has the January sales numbers, but they are really inconsequential for now. What&nbsp;I really want you to notice is what is happening to wards the end of the year. Remember earlier,&nbsp;when I pointed out the difference in resale and comparable new construction, that new construction pricing cannot drop the way resale prices can and that as prices drop, sales volume will increase.&nbsp; Now go back to the first graph and and take a closer look at the end of the year sales volume from 2007 and 2008. Notice that it is closer to the same than new construction is by itself. It's clear then that new construction prices have more to fall if they are going to begin to get to a point of year over year sales volume increase.

Now let's look at what is happening in the largest segment of the Atlanta real estate market - residential resale:



Do you see what's happening? There is a lot for all of us to be excited about in this graph. Because residential resale prices have fallen, we should begin seeing year over year sales volume increases this summer consistently and don't be surprised if we see a few months earlier than the end of summer where year over year sales volume is above that of 2007. This will be the first real sign that the market is making a change! Don't go overboard. It's just the beginning and it won't start in earnest this year, but, it is happening.

Now, don't think that this means sales prices are going to increase anytime soon. I don't think that they are and there is nothing to indicate that they are, but, they can't even begin to level off until the inventory of homes meets the sales volume somewhere under 10 months of supply. Of course, we will never get to that point unless sales volume increases. That begins with year over year sales volume increases and that is what we are going to begin seeing this summer.

O.K., O.K., the caveat: This will not happen if the greater economy continues getting too much worse, but, it is likely to happen even if the unemployment rate reaches 10% nationally and it will probably be 10% in Georgia this summer anyway. There is nothing that is in the air to stop those type of unemployment numbers. But, when and ONLY when we begin to see year over year sales volume increases can we begin to get out of this devastating hole that we are in.

So that's it. The trends are here. We are at the top cusp of the bottom of the market. There will be no real way to see that actual bottom until it passes. For some segments, it's here right now. For others, it's still at least a year away, most others are somewhere in the middle, but, know this: We are at the beginning of the bottom, unless the recession turns to a depression. Your welcome to bookmark this and come back in march of 2010 and tell me whether I was right or wrong :-)
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            <pubDate>Mon, 09 Mar 2009 20:20:30 -0400</pubDate>
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            <guid>http://www.premieratlantarealestate.com/blog/the-crystal-ball-upset-cheerleaders-and-real-estate.html</guid>
            <link>http://www.premieratlantarealestate.com/blog/the-crystal-ball-upset-cheerleaders-and-real-estate.html</link>
            <author>ryan@premieratlantarealestate.com (Ryan C Ward)</author>
            <title>The Crystal Ball, Upset Cheerleaders and Real Estate in 2009 Plus a Look Back at 2008</title>
            <description> <![CDATA[ 
The view out the front isn't as bad as what we see in the rear view mirror, but, the clouds have not parted yet. The Atlanta real estate market, like most around the country is not what it was just a couple of years ago.


&nbsp; 
It's that time of year again to reflect back on 2008 and bring out the real estate crystal ball&nbsp;to look ahead at 2009. Gary Keller says that we needed to SHIFT. The media reported that it may take decades to recover. We are in a recession. Agents&nbsp;flocked like lemmings out of&nbsp;the industry. Web 2.0&nbsp;continued to be&nbsp;the most over-talked-to-the-point-of-boredom conversation real estate bloggers thought was&nbsp;important. Sales volume was down. Sales prices&nbsp;were down. Inventory&nbsp;was up. Subprime mortgages tanked the economy and buyers still complained that there wasn't enough value in the housing stock as we leave 2008. I'm sure that much more can be added, but, that is what I heard on the &quot;street&quot; and they all made it sound so important I thought I would summarize one last time in this end of the year piece and then leave it for good. For many, 2008 has been a terrible year.

Before I look into my crystal ball (you may guess my prediction&nbsp;by the background behind the crystal ball) I do have some good things to say about 2008. I have met some wonderful people this year; all of my family, my clients, my team of agents, my closing coordinator, my broker and all of the people around me that make life worth living continue to make it worth living today and continue to make it feel like it was a good decision to start this carreer to begin with. So thank you. Because of you,&nbsp;lots of&nbsp;hard work, some luck and a dash of skill sprinkled on top, 2008 turned out to be the most exciting year I have ever had in real estate. It's with all of this in mind that I would like to make a few predicitions about the upcoming year and real estate.

The Crystal Ball

This one is mine. I made it so that I could predict the future. Admittedly, it doesn't seem to make my predictions any more accurate than they would be if I didn't use it at all, but, we need every bit of assistance we can get our hands on to get a full grasp of this real estate market and everyone wants a crystal ball in real estate. I'm only allowed to use it&nbsp;four times&nbsp;in 2009. That's the rule. Too many predictions&nbsp;may not make for good business. Especially if I didn't get my crystal ball just right when I made it. So with that, I'm giving it a test spin now so as to not waste one of its uses in 2009. I may really need to use it if it turns out to be as bad as some say it will be.

Angry Cheerleaders

One thing that we will have plenty of in the early to middle part of 2009 is a lot of upset real estate cheerleaders. If you follow the market, here in Atlanta and elsewhere, I'm sure you have seen these unrealistic souls spouting off the virtues of &quot;It's a great time to buy&quot; or &quot;It's official! We've reached the bottom&quot;. All of this to try and give consumers the impression that it's a secure time to buy. Enough already! Either these people don't understand the market completely or they will say anything to sell a house.

More Foreclosures, Lower Values and Limited Loosening of Underwriting Guidelines

From where I sit, I don't see how underwriting guidelines change very much. Until they do, who is going to come in to the market to buy up the extra inventory and change the dynamic of an oversuppy of homes as it it relates to the sales volume? No matter what we want to happen, we cannot fix supply and demand issues very easily. A best case scenario may be something like a mandatory lowering of interest rates for a minimum of 180 days. This is about the only solution that does not require that prices drop or we approve more risky loans to lower the inventory. Ask your local bank if they could stay in business with loans like that and they would probably loose color in their face if the Fed didn't have its hand out holding a fist full of money for the first 5,000,000 fastest people to get to them so there is hope for some kind of help at the Federal level that won't dessimate one industry to save another.

Foreclosures will continue at a similar rate we are currently seeing. By themselves, foreclosures are not hurting values. But, when there are no other sales to compare, they are the comparables and there are lots of areas around the country where this is the case. Hence, the foreclosures will contribute to lowering values by way of tighter lending which lowers the number of non-distressed sales which would otherwise eliminate the necessity to use foreclosures as comps.

No Significant Increase in Sales Volume

I realize that banks are in business to make money and they make lots of it by lending it so at some point, there will be a loosening of guidelines, but I don't see anything to indicate that the number of solid loans on the books is anywhere near high enough to lower underwriting guidelines to open themselves up to riskier loans and investors don't have much of an appetite for high risk loans now anyway. Until there are more loans available, the market can't really improve - at least not from a supply and demand point of view. There is also still a question about how many more foreclosures will enter the market and the time it takes to market and sell them. Sales volume can't increase unless all of a sudden more buyers qualify either with better credit or easier to obtain loans. So we will stay where we are for a while longer.

What Does the Crystal Ball Say?

The crystal ball says that we should expect more of the same and maybe a further slowdown before the market levels out and stays there until spring of 2010. It's possible we are already at the leveled off period, but, the greater economy makes it just too hard for me to crawl out on that limb. I wish that I could point to some tangible evidence that this is not the case, but, it doesn't exist. Sure, there is anecdote and the occasional whisper of one good report here and there. Certainly the lack of new housing starts will help, but, it will take time - in my opinion, more than another year.

What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers Right Now?

Honestly? Not much. In a changing market, lose the funny stuff and stick to the basics. If you are a buyer, assess the value of a property and buy it if it looks like a good deal. A good deal is a good deal. Period. if you are a seller, you need to understand your local market, price for it and market the you-know-what out of it. In the end, buyers will buy and sellers will sell and here is a short list of some of the more traditional reasons why: divorce, marriage, death, employment relocation, new babies, babies growing up and going to college, graduation, promotion,&nbsp;etc...the list is actually quite long and falls directly under the category of life. As long as we have that, we will have real estate listed for sale and buyers needing to buy it. So, hang on for an unsteady market in 2009. Seek guidance from a real estate professional who will tell you the truth and not what you may want to hear and be patient. Bad real estate markets don't llast forever. Unless you believe the ridiculous and mostly irresponsible half-cocked attempts at fear created by under informaed media types who don't have much business reporting on stories that they no little about.
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            <pubDate>Sat, 13 Dec 2008 21:25:30 -0500</pubDate>
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