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        <title>Atlanta Real Estate Blog</title>
        <link>http://www.premieratlantarealestate.com/blog/tags/atlanta-real-estate-market/</link>
        <description>Atlanta real estate blog. Consumer focused real estate information for Atlanta and information and insight into local and national topics. Areas of interest include; Buckhead, Sandy Springs, Roswell &amp; Alpharetta. North Metro Atlanta.</description>
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            <guid>http://www.premieratlantarealestate.com/blog/spring-market-update-for-metro-atlanta.html</guid>
            <link>http://www.premieratlantarealestate.com/blog/spring-market-update-for-metro-atlanta.html</link>
            <author>ryan@premieratlantarealestate.com (Ryan Ward:  CEO of Premier Atlanta Real Estate - Keller Williams)</author>
            <title>Spring Market Update for Metro Atlanta</title>
            <description> <![CDATA[ 
The ups and downs (mostly downs) of the market are likely to continue, at least for most of this year and there is a good chance that the next six months will be the hardest summer selling season yet if you are a seller, but, the statistics are definitely showing some important and changing&nbsp;trends that you probably are not hearing about on the news. What we need to look at is&nbsp;one month from one year compared to the same month from a previous year. This counterbalances annual cycles like the ones that we have here in Atlanta. That's the case everywhere, but I digress. An increase in December over November is meaningless to the market as that is the case every year.

Below&nbsp;are a few&nbsp;sales graphs that I want to explain before you read them and then I'll add some further information below them. The first graph is all residential sales volume of single family homes by month. Below that is only new construction sales. The third is all non-new construction sales. Before you look at them, I want to explain why I did this. A few weeks ago, we had a presentation in our office explaining that the median price difference in Atlanta between new construction and similar resale homes was at an all time high of $122,000. This difference in afford ability has created a very interesting scenario in the real estate market in Atlanta that will begin playing out later this year and will mark the beginning of the end of the downturn locally unless something else terrible happens.

Remember this point for later: New construction cannot come down in price while resale home value can drop. It's going to be important to see what's happening in the market.

O.K., let's look at these graphs. The first is all residential single family sales in Metro Atlanta for 2007, 2008:



What I haven't graphed for you is sales price, but, I figure you don't need me or anyone else to tell you that prices have come down. Remember, moving forward, this becomes a simple issue of supply and demand. As prices drop, sales volume will increase. Next let's look only at what has happened to new construction sales volume:



This graph has the January sales numbers, but they are really inconsequential for now. What&nbsp;I really want you to notice is what is happening to wards the end of the year. Remember earlier,&nbsp;when I pointed out the difference in resale and comparable new construction, that new construction pricing cannot drop the way resale prices can and that as prices drop, sales volume will increase.&nbsp; Now go back to the first graph and and take a closer look at the end of the year sales volume from 2007 and 2008. Notice that it is closer to the same than new construction is by itself. It's clear then that new construction prices have more to fall if they are going to begin to get to a point of year over year sales volume increase.

Now let's look at what is happening in the largest segment of the Atlanta real estate market - residential resale:



Do you see what's happening? There is a lot for all of us to be excited about in this graph. Because residential resale prices have fallen, we should begin seeing year over year sales volume increases this summer consistently and don't be surprised if we see a few months earlier than the end of summer where year over year sales volume is above that of 2007. This will be the first real sign that the market is making a change! Don't go overboard. It's just the beginning and it won't start in earnest this year, but, it is happening.

Now, don't think that this means sales prices are going to increase anytime soon. I don't think that they are and there is nothing to indicate that they are, but, they can't even begin to level off until the inventory of homes meets the sales volume somewhere under 10 months of supply. Of course, we will never get to that point unless sales volume increases. That begins with year over year sales volume increases and that is what we are going to begin seeing this summer.

O.K., O.K., the caveat: This will not happen if the greater economy continues getting too much worse, but, it is likely to happen even if the unemployment rate reaches 10% nationally and it will probably be 10% in Georgia this summer anyway. There is nothing that is in the air to stop those type of unemployment numbers. But, when and ONLY when we begin to see year over year sales volume increases can we begin to get out of this devastating hole that we are in.

So that's it. The trends are here. We are at the top cusp of the bottom of the market. There will be no real way to see that actual bottom until it passes. For some segments, it's here right now. For others, it's still at least a year away, most others are somewhere in the middle, but, know this: We are at the beginning of the bottom, unless the recession turns to a depression. Your welcome to bookmark this and come back in march of 2010 and tell me whether I was right or wrong :-)
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            <pubDate>Mon, 09 Mar 2009 20:20:30 -0400</pubDate>
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            <guid>http://www.premieratlantarealestate.com/blog/the-crystal-ball-upset-cheerleaders-and-real-estate.html</guid>
            <link>http://www.premieratlantarealestate.com/blog/the-crystal-ball-upset-cheerleaders-and-real-estate.html</link>
            <author>ryan@premieratlantarealestate.com (Ryan Ward:  CEO of Premier Atlanta Real Estate - Keller Williams)</author>
            <title>The Crystal Ball, Upset Cheerleaders and Real Estate in 2009 Plus a Look Back at 2008</title>
            <description> <![CDATA[ 
The view out the front isn't as bad as what we see in the rear view mirror, but, the clouds have not parted yet. The Atlanta real estate market, like most around the country is not what it was just a couple of years ago.


&nbsp; 
It's that time of year again to reflect back on 2008 and bring out the real estate crystal ball&nbsp;to look ahead at 2009. Gary Keller says that we needed to SHIFT. The media reported that it may take decades to recover. We are in a recession. Agents&nbsp;flocked like lemmings out of&nbsp;the industry. Web 2.0&nbsp;continued to be&nbsp;the most over-talked-to-the-point-of-boredom conversation real estate bloggers thought was&nbsp;important. Sales volume was down. Sales prices&nbsp;were down. Inventory&nbsp;was up. Subprime mortgages tanked the economy and buyers still complained that there wasn't enough value in the housing stock as we leave 2008. I'm sure that much more can be added, but, that is what I heard on the &quot;street&quot; and they all made it sound so important I thought I would summarize one last time in this end of the year piece and then leave it for good. For many, 2008 has been a terrible year.

Before I look into my crystal ball (you may guess my prediction&nbsp;by the background behind the crystal ball) I do have some good things to say about 2008. I have met some wonderful people this year; all of my family, my clients, my team of agents, my closing coordinator, my broker and all of the people around me that make life worth living continue to make it worth living today and continue to make it feel like it was a good decision to start this carreer to begin with. So thank you. Because of you,&nbsp;lots of&nbsp;hard work, some luck and a dash of skill sprinkled on top, 2008 turned out to be the most exciting year I have ever had in real estate. It's with all of this in mind that I would like to make a few predicitions about the upcoming year and real estate.

The Crystal Ball

This one is mine. I made it so that I could predict the future. Admittedly, it doesn't seem to make my predictions any more accurate than they would be if I didn't use it at all, but, we need every bit of assistance we can get our hands on to get a full grasp of this real estate market and everyone wants a crystal ball in real estate. I'm only allowed to use it&nbsp;four times&nbsp;in 2009. That's the rule. Too many predictions&nbsp;may not make for good business. Especially if I didn't get my crystal ball just right when I made it. So with that, I'm giving it a test spin now so as to not waste one of its uses in 2009. I may really need to use it if it turns out to be as bad as some say it will be.

Angry Cheerleaders

One thing that we will have plenty of in the early to middle part of 2009 is a lot of upset real estate cheerleaders. If you follow the market, here in Atlanta and elsewhere, I'm sure you have seen these unrealistic souls spouting off the virtues of &quot;It's a great time to buy&quot; or &quot;It's official! We've reached the bottom&quot;. All of this to try and give consumers the impression that it's a secure time to buy. Enough already! Either these people don't understand the market completely or they will say anything to sell a house.

More Foreclosures, Lower Values and Limited Loosening of Underwriting Guidelines

From where I sit, I don't see how underwriting guidelines change very much. Until they do, who is going to come in to the market to buy up the extra inventory and change the dynamic of an oversuppy of homes as it it relates to the sales volume? No matter what we want to happen, we cannot fix supply and demand issues very easily. A best case scenario may be something like a mandatory lowering of interest rates for a minimum of 180 days. This is about the only solution that does not require that prices drop or we approve more risky loans to lower the inventory. Ask your local bank if they could stay in business with loans like that and they would probably loose color in their face if the Fed didn't have its hand out holding a fist full of money for the first 5,000,000 fastest people to get to them so there is hope for some kind of help at the Federal level that won't dessimate one industry to save another.

Foreclosures will continue at a similar rate we are currently seeing. By themselves, foreclosures are not hurting values. But, when there are no other sales to compare, they are the comparables and there are lots of areas around the country where this is the case. Hence, the foreclosures will contribute to lowering values by way of tighter lending which lowers the number of non-distressed sales which would otherwise eliminate the necessity to use foreclosures as comps.

No Significant Increase in Sales Volume

I realize that banks are in business to make money and they make lots of it by lending it so at some point, there will be a loosening of guidelines, but I don't see anything to indicate that the number of solid loans on the books is anywhere near high enough to lower underwriting guidelines to open themselves up to riskier loans and investors don't have much of an appetite for high risk loans now anyway. Until there are more loans available, the market can't really improve - at least not from a supply and demand point of view. There is also still a question about how many more foreclosures will enter the market and the time it takes to market and sell them. Sales volume can't increase unless all of a sudden more buyers qualify either with better credit or easier to obtain loans. So we will stay where we are for a while longer.

What Does the Crystal Ball Say?

The crystal ball says that we should expect more of the same and maybe a further slowdown before the market levels out and stays there until spring of 2010. It's possible we are already at the leveled off period, but, the greater economy makes it just too hard for me to crawl out on that limb. I wish that I could point to some tangible evidence that this is not the case, but, it doesn't exist. Sure, there is anecdote and the occasional whisper of one good report here and there. Certainly the lack of new housing starts will help, but, it will take time - in my opinion, more than another year.

What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers Right Now?

Honestly? Not much. In a changing market, lose the funny stuff and stick to the basics. If you are a buyer, assess the value of a property and buy it if it looks like a good deal. A good deal is a good deal. Period. if you are a seller, you need to understand your local market, price for it and market the you-know-what out of it. In the end, buyers will buy and sellers will sell and here is a short list of some of the more traditional reasons why: divorce, marriage, death, employment relocation, new babies, babies growing up and going to college, graduation, promotion,&nbsp;etc...the list is actually quite long and falls directly under the category of life. As long as we have that, we will have real estate listed for sale and buyers needing to buy it. So, hang on for an unsteady market in 2009. Seek guidance from a real estate professional who will tell you the truth and not what you may want to hear and be patient. Bad real estate markets don't llast forever. Unless you believe the ridiculous and mostly irresponsible half-cocked attempts at fear created by under informaed media types who don't have much business reporting on stories that they no little about.
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            <pubDate>Sat, 13 Dec 2008 21:25:30 -0500</pubDate>
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            <guid>http://www.premieratlantarealestate.com/blog/homes-for-sale-in-blackstone-suwanee-market-update.html</guid>
            <link>http://www.premieratlantarealestate.com/blog/homes-for-sale-in-blackstone-suwanee-market-update.html</link>
            <author>ryan@premieratlantarealestate.com (Ryan Ward:  CEO of Premier Atlanta Real Estate - Keller Williams)</author>
            <title>Homes For Sale in Blackstone, Suwanee - Market Update</title>
            <description> <![CDATA[ 
&nbsp;

I'm putting together a market analysis for a client looking at several neighborhoods. One of the neighborhoods is Blackstone and since I've never written anything about it, I figured that now would be as good of a time as any to post some market statistics for anyone else who might be interested.

Blackstone is a Pulte neighborhood located in the northeast section of Fulton County in the City of Suwanee with its&nbsp;entrance running south off of McGinnes Ferry.&nbsp;The neighborhood itself is one that is remarkably level for the area and that means lots of homes sitting on good lots. It also means more homes on slabs than in some other areas where the topography is more conducive to&nbsp;basements. The neighborhood, like most newer home communities in the area, has swim and tennis.&nbsp;So let's get to some statistics! These were put together to give a broad overview of the neighborhood to either continue looking at or discontinuing and looking and move to something else so they are somewhat general. I have more, but, they are a little too specific for a blog post.

If you are interested, email or call me and I'll be happy to put something more complete together for you. We were looking at some specific floorplans so this is for the 4 bedroom 2.5 bathroom homes in the neighborhood, but, it's a good exercise and is general enough to apply to the Blackstone real estate market.

We are not permitted to use the square feet of a home to assess its value. We can consider it, but it cannot be the basis from which determine value by itself.


In 2007 there were 8 sales with an average sales price of $356,987.

In 2008 there have been 3 sales with an average sales price $336,500.

This is a reduction in value of 5.7%.


Here is the important point. There have been no sales since July. There are 7 homes listed for sale right now plus there is one additional home listed for sale that is under contract that is in limbo. The tax records show it closed in August for $384,000, but, I'm leaving it out for now. It should be closed according to the FMLS, but, I can't get a hold of the agent to confirm it and since these are broad numbers, we can really get what we need without it. It&nbsp;was listed for sale for $399,000. If we exclude the one home that is under contract, the average list price for the homes for sale is $340,571 - included it's about $355,000. From these numbers, a realistic price range in the current market is probably closer to $310,000 - $325,000 for a final sales price and this could rise with a simple confirmation that this is actually closed to something in the $325,000 to $345,000 range simply because a recent $384,000 sale does indicate something significant enough to help hold up prices.

Something helpful here would be to look at the whole Northview High School District where Blackstone is located in. Lets compare the sales volume drop in Blackstone to that of the Greater Northview School District:

In 2007, 369 homes sold through the first week in November. This year for the same time period, 262 homes have sold. That is a sales drop of 29%. The actual number of sales drop in Blackstone is higher, but, its really not a large enough sample of homes to say that it is due to anything intrinsically wrong with the neighborhood.

I know, this is really a quick snapshot, but, it fits in with the same pattern for what is happening elsewhere in North Fulton. If you are looking for something more specific, please don't hesitate to call me.
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            <pubDate>Wed, 10 Dec 2008 21:33:28 -0500</pubDate>
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            <guid>http://www.premieratlantarealestate.com/blog/statistics-graphs-and-sales-oh-my.html</guid>
            <link>http://www.premieratlantarealestate.com/blog/statistics-graphs-and-sales-oh-my.html</link>
            <author>ryan@premieratlantarealestate.com (Ryan Ward:  CEO of Premier Atlanta Real Estate - Keller Williams)</author>
            <title>Statistics, Graphs and Sales - Oh My!</title>
            <description> <![CDATA[ 
And I don't mean in a good way. With the launch of my new website and Thanksgiving, I'm a little late getting to the meat turkey of the statistics in an updated post on October sales data so I apologize up front. I hope that you weren't on the edge of your seat to see a miraculous rebound in the market because there isn't one. I actually am not going to be standing on the edge of my laptop anytime soon screaming about &quot;The Bottom&quot; or &quot;Now is the Time to Buy&quot;. The first, we will only see in the rear view mirror and the latter is simply too subjective. If you are moving to Atlanta for work or some other reason, it probably seems like a great time - because you have to. On the other hand, if you bought a house 2 years ago with 100% financing and want to move up, you might want to wait.

The most recent statistics give us more of the same. Here is one excerpt from the report:

&quot;After lags have been reported, the average closing price for residential detached in September 2008 actually declined 19.9% from September 2007. This is the greatest year-to-year percentage decline for residential detached on record.&quot;

What is of more concern to me going forward that may mean a continuing of this trend is the slowdown in closed transactions. The chart below is from October sales. There are two arrows; one yellow and one red. The red represents October 2000 sales and the yellow arrow points to the sales in 2008. 2008 sales in October are almost off of the chart low and lower&nbsp;even than&nbsp;October sales until we get back to the 1990's.



These sales begin to represent the after effects of the financial crisis, but, I expect this to continue through November sales. Before Thsanksgiving, I did a very unscientific poll of agents in our office to see how much activity they were getting on their listings and the response was next to none for all of them.

What happens towards the end of the year to real estate in Atlanta is that we typically see an increase in showings in November which leads to an increase in closings in December and with continuing slower than normal activity this year, it's hard to come to the conclusion that sales will have the historical uptick we typically see.

More Statistics

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            <pubDate>Fri, 28 Nov 2008 21:10:24 -0500</pubDate>
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