Statistics, Graphs and Sales - Oh My!
Posted by Ryan Ward: CEO of Premier Atlanta Real Estate - Keller Williams on Friday, November 28th, 2008 at 9:10pm.And I don't mean in a good way. With the launch of my new website and Thanksgiving, I'm a little late getting to the meat turkey of the statistics in an updated post on October sales data so I apologize up front. I hope that you weren't on the edge of your seat to see a miraculous rebound in the market because there isn't one. I actually am not going to be standing on the edge of my laptop anytime soon screaming about "The Bottom" or "Now is the Time to Buy". The first, we will only see in the rear view mirror and the latter is simply too subjective. If you are moving to Atlanta for work or some other reason, it probably seems like a great time - because you have to. On the other hand, if you bought a house 2 years ago with 100% financing and want to move up, you might want to wait.
The most recent statistics give us more of the same. Here is one excerpt from the report:
"After lags have been reported, the average closing price for residential detached in September 2008 actually declined 19.9% from September 2007. This is the greatest year-to-year percentage decline for residential detached on record."
What is of more concern to me going forward that may mean a continuing of this trend is the slowdown in closed transactions. The chart below is from October sales. There are two arrows; one yellow and one red. The red represents October 2000 sales and the yellow arrow points to the sales in 2008. 2008 sales in October are almost off of the chart low and lower even than October sales until we get back to the 1990's.
These sales begin to represent the after effects of the financial crisis, but, I expect this to continue through November sales. Before Thsanksgiving, I did a very unscientific poll of agents in our office to see how much activity they were getting on their listings and the response was next to none for all of them.
What happens towards the end of the year to real estate in Atlanta is that we typically see an increase in showings in November which leads to an increase in closings in December and with continuing slower than normal activity this year, it's hard to come to the conclusion that sales will have the historical uptick we typically see.
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Ryan Ward, Principal
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Share8 Responses to "Statistics, Graphs and Sales - Oh My!"
Ryan-
What stimulus if any do you think the rates currently in the low 5's or even the talked about drive to push rates into the low 4's% range will do to kick start the housing market?
Posted on Friday, December 5th, 2008 at 10:56am.
Dallas is a total different area. Our listing get alot of traffic. Of course most of them are shortsales.
Posted on Sunday, December 7th, 2008 at 1:13pm.
Lower mortgage rates have no impact on someone who has just lost their job.
Posted on Wednesday, December 10th, 2008 at 8:15am.
Kent,
Rates are even lower now, but, there is way too much inventory for this to make much of a difference for SEVERAL months.
Mike, short sales and foreclosures get tons of traffic here as well.
West, I think you may have stated the obvious with this declarative sentence. What's your point? They make up 7% of the population and truth be told it's actually lower because the stats don't actually account for a growing number of self employed people. I realize as most of us do that it is not an easy time for many people, but, statements like that are wasted pixels. Another way to read that is that 93% of people are employed, a super economy has about 5% unemployment which means we are not as bad off as it "feels".
I am sick and tired of negative crap influences and further bringing things down. We all realize this is a tough economic cycle. Everyone gets that. The true historical perspective does not make it mandatory that we run around screaming that the sky is falling. I provide real statistics, I don't sugar coat it, I don't proclaim that we are at the bottom and that if you are a buyer and you aren't buying now you are stupid. I am responsible and measured in everything I say here. It's bad. It's not the end of the world.
Posted on Wednesday, December 10th, 2008 at 9:34am.
Ryan-
Yes it is bad but it also is an opportunity...think of it this way it seems that the housing and stock markets are two places that consumers run from a sale. Put a 50% off sign out at Macy's or Walmart and people line up to buy (even in a down economy)...Put a 50% off sign on a house or stock and every one runs the other direction. People rush to buy homes and stocks on the way up and pay top dollar but on the way down and discounted prices run for cover??
I wish I had extra capitol I would be buying assets like crazy today (it may not be the bottom but it's close enough for me).
Posted on Wednesday, December 10th, 2008 at 11:28am.
"(it may not be the bottom but it's close enough for me)."
I could not agree more...
Posted on Wednesday, December 10th, 2008 at 12:02pm.
Ryan great data on what has happened in and to the Atlanta real estate market. A brief positive note that will hopefully help push those graphs back up in the comming months:
- Mortgage rates have come down in a big way due the fed buying up GSE's. I believe the 30 yeay in in the mid 5's and I hear it may go as low as the 4's (that should pull some buyers into the market).
-Mortgage app's as reported by the Mortage Bankers Association are up 30 to 40% in the most recent weekly report (hopefuly a sign of homes headed for closing).
Plenty of negative housing and economic news to go around but there are a flew glimmers of light if you look hard.
1-866-U-MOVING
Posted on Wednesday, December 3rd, 2008 at 2:40pm.