Atlanta Real Estate Blog

Less Foreclosures in Alpharetta Means Less Downward Pressure on Prices

The number of foreclosure sales in Alpharetta in the last 60 days is down 84% from the same time last year. There have only been 6 foreclosure sales in the last 60 days of this year compared with 38 sales during the same period last year This is an amazing statistic if you think about it!

Foreclosures depress home prices because many buyers prefer them and appraisers use them as comparable sales to arrive at valuations for other homes. This is inline with what RealtyTrac reports nationally showing a 29% decline in Q3 of 2013 compared to Q3 of 2012 of foreclosure sales. Of course, foreclosures have always been below the national averages in Alpharetta, but with only 6 selling in the last 60 days, I believe we can make a few observations:

  • With this few foreclosure sales, prices will not be pressured downward any longer. We've seen this trend happening for about 1 year and half, but these numbers really put the end to any further speculation.
  • For buyers seeking a "deal", they are gone. It's time we now assess this market from the point of view of value again. Of course, you can still get a deal, but it's based on value, not price.
  • For sellers, this is great news because buyers no longer have the low priced options they had in previous years so you will see more real buyers and few low ball offers. This should mean prices wil continue to rise (see Alpharetta home prices if you would like to know what your home is worth) provided the economy does not fall out from under us because of what is happening in Washington (I don't see tha happening).

Overall sales don't seem to be trending up from last year, but with supply so low due to fewer foreclosures and the lack of equity for traditional sellers, we remain in a sellers...

Demand Down, Inventory Up - Moving Towards a More Balanced Market

As we enter the 4th quarter, it's a good idea to look back at the end of the 3rd quarter for signs of what we can expect for the remainder of the year. For all of the hype about the newly improved real estate market, there are some strong signs we have slowed down considerably. Here are some quick numbers I just ran for Metro Atlanta and some of the more sought after areas around the city. It certainly does not indicate a strengthening seller's market. Combine these numbers with several consecutive months of increasing inventory and we are looking at starting 2014 more like 2013 than most of us would have hoped.

Now, this isn't necessarily a bad thing, it's just that some of the gains we saw starting in the Spring of 2013 were too dramatic to be sustainable. For example, when we see home prices increase by double digit percentages in a six month period, we are movning too fast. Let's not forget what we are finally climbing out of so a little balance might be just what the market needs to maintain long term sustained growth:

Demand This Year:

  • 30 days back = 3,576 homes sold
  • 31 - 60 back = 5,005 homes sold
  • 61 - 90 back = 5,607 homes sold
  • 91 - 120 back = 5,346 homes sold

Demand Last Year for the Same Time Period:

  • Last year 30 days back = 4,687 homes sold
  • Last year 31 - 60 back = 5,204 homes sold
  • Last year 61 - 90 back = 5,351 homes sold
  • Last 91 - 120 back = 5,343 homes sold
  • This year, last 30 days back for all sales over $100,000 = 2,851
  • Last year, last 30 days back for all sales over $100,000 = 2,914

So, for all homes over $100,000 this year compared to the...