Demand Down, Inventory Up - Moving Towards a More Balanced Market
As we enter the 4th quarter, it's a good idea to look back at the end of the 3rd quarter for signs of what we can expect for the remainder of the year. For all of the hype about the newly improved real estate market, there are some strong signs we have slowed down considerably. Here are some quick numbers I just ran for Metro Atlanta and some of the more sought after areas around the city. It certainly does not indicate a strengthening seller's market. Combine these numbers with several consecutive months of increasing inventory and we are looking at starting 2014 more like 2013 than most of us would have hoped.
Now, this isn't necessarily a bad thing, it's just that some of the gains we saw starting in the Spring of 2013 were too dramatic to be sustainable. For example, when we see home prices increase by double digit percentages in a six month period, we are movning too fast. Let's not forget what we are finally climbing out of so a little balance might be just what the market needs to maintain long term sustained growth:
Demand This Year:
- 30 days back = 3,576 homes sold
- 31 - 60 back = 5,005 homes sold
- 61 - 90 back = 5,607 homes sold
- 91 - 120 back = 5,346 homes sold
Demand Last Year for the Same Time Period:
- Last year 30 days back = 4,687 homes sold
- Last year 31 - 60 back = 5,204 homes sold
- Last year 61 - 90 back = 5,351 homes sold
- Last 91 - 120 back = 5,343 homes sold
- This year, last 30 days back for all sales over $100,000 = 2,851
- Last year, last 30 days back for all sales over $100,000 = 2,914
So, for all homes over $100,000 this year compared to the same time last year (during the last 30 day period) we are down 2.1% and when we look at all homes, we are down 23.7%.
This seems to be true for even some of the more sought after areas, but not all:
- Alpharetta - this year in the last 30 days there have been 111 sales and last year for the same period there were 148. That's a decline of 25%
- Buckhead - this year there have been 67 sales and last year there were 60. That's an increase of 11.7%
- Decatur - this year there have been 26 sales and last year there were 41. That's a decrease of 36.6%
- Roswell = this year there have been 90 sales and last year there were 82. That's a increase of 9.8%
As you can see, there is a general trend towards a more balanced market, but some areas have slowed dramatically, while others still have an increase in demand. The best thing you can do is contact your REALTOR (or us) to find out how you may be impacted.
For sellers, this is imperative as the market changes will have a significant impact on the proce of your home.
For buyers, you need to see if you are still going to be making an offer on a house in a multiple offer situation as many have done over the past few months. This will have a major impact on how you negotiate.